The cornerstone of Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement is a National Insurance cut ensuring the rate will fall from 12% to 10%.
The NI cut is, of course, eclipsed by a huge tax hike in the form of the freezing of income tax thresholds that will last right out until 2028.
But the NI cut is a classic pre-election dividing line move aimed at helping workers, signalling the Tories are now cutting taxes and Labour will, the Tories say, put them up. As Dan Hodges put it on X/Twitter after the Autumn Statement: “Special legislation to bring in NI cut on January 6. Another clear pointer to a May election.”
Why’s that? The Treasury assumption is that it takes three to six months for voters to notice and feel the effects of a tax cut.
To get the full electoral benefit, if there is one, the government will need voting to take place in May or early June.
Another case for a May election is the illegal migration stop the boats crisis. Arrivals are at their height every summer. Waiting until October or November 2024 would give Reform and Nigel Farage all summer to run at the Tories on the subject.
Against all that, in May Sunak will only have been PM for a little over 18 months. He took power in October 2022. Prime Minister’s always worry about their legacy and if he loses two years sounds more substantial than 18 months.
It may also be that the opinion polls haven’t narrowed by Easter and Sunak decides to wait, in the hope that something new that avoids Tory evisceration turns up.
