Last day of the Six Nations: is it win time for Wales?

It should be the last day, the Grand Finale, of this season’s Six Nations. It’s  not the former. Postponement of the France-Scotland match at the end of last month, means that game has still to be played, perhaps next Friday evening. Nevertheless, today may yet be the effective finale, for it may involve Wales being crowned as champions, winners even of a Grand Slam.

Before the tournament this would have seemed an improbable outcome. After a dismal record since Wayne Pivac replaced Warren Gatland as their coach – three wins in ten matches in 2020 – few, even in Wales, had high expectations. Yet, here we are. Wales have played four, won four, and play in Paris knowing that even a draw or a defeat with a losing bonus point will secure them the title, so long as France don’t score four tries and come away with only four championship points. 

Can Wales do it? Well, the Roman goddess Fortuna seems to have taken up residence in the Welsh dressing-room. They didn’t need her assistance when they beat Italy in Rome last weekend, but she certainly smiled on them in their victories over Ireland, Scotland and England; not only smiled but gave them a powerful helping hand. It would be cruel if she withdrew her favours now. Nevertheless, the ancient gods were known to be fickle, and one can’t but think that, though this Welsh team has been growing in confidence and stature as the weeks pass, they will still need a good slice of luck to win in the Stade de France, even in the absence of a crowd and Basque bands. That said, the French crowd can be almost as fickle as the goddess Fortuna herself.

The first-half at Twickenham last week offered us the best, most skilful and daring rugby we have seen for months. It was a real treat. The second French try was an absolute gem, a connoisseur’s piece, and Anthony Watson’s one for England wasn’t half bad either. England indeed were transformed, no longer the dull, leaden-footed, witless side that had lost at home to Scotland and away to Wales.They must be kicking themselves. If they had played in these matches as they did against France, it is they who would be in search of a Grand Slam today.

France of course came very close to winning at Twickenham. Afterwards I wondered if they had, subconsciously, made the mistake of trying to defend their lead in the last quarter rather than seeking to increase it. But I don’t think this was the case. The balance shifted in England’s favour principally because the English replacements made a much more significant contribution than the French ones. It was a match of such quality that neither side deserved to lose it. A stark contrast to the Scotland-Ireland match at Murrayfield which, for different reasons, neither team deserved to win; Scotland because they made so many mistakes, Ireland because they played such a tiresomely limited game.

Ireland’s game is based on kicking for position from their own half and retaining possession of the ball in the opposition’s. They do these two things very well, and no other team in the tournament is better at scoring tries once they have established camp in the opposition 22. They have scored eleven tries in the tournament, not one from a handling movement originating in their own half. This points to a sad lack of ambition, extraordinary indeed when you consider the quality of their three-quarters.

For as long as I remember, people assessing France’s chances in a match have said “it depends on which French team turns up”. That line may now be better applied to England. If the team that turns up in Dublin is the one that played France last week, they will surely win, indeed quite handsomely. If on the other hand it’s the one that lost to Scotland and Wales, conceding a sheaf of penalties in both matches, they will surely lose. Last week, Scotland gave Johnny Sexton five chances to kick a penalty goal and he obliged every time. If the England forwards, notably Maro Itoje, pay as little heed to the laws at the breakdown as they did in Cardiff, Sexton will kick them to defeat.

Not so long ago France might have reacted to the defeat at Twickenham by making half-a-dozen changes, at least one of them bizarre. Now they have had the confidence to name the same team. It is still a young team while Wales have much more experience. Over the years, many good judges of the game, among them a fair number of internationalists have assured me that there’s no substitute for experience. Well, there are other things that matter: speed, imagination, enterprise and flair, and this young French team rates high on all these. The narrow loss at Twickenham may even benefit them. They will have learned from it, and, unlike Wales, are free of the burden of Grand Slam expectancy. I find it hard to see Wales winning, but then I thought they would lose to Ireland, Scotland and England.

So if the goddess Fortuna is still established in the Welsh dressing-room and assuring Alun Wyn Jones he remains her favourite son, who knows? But if she says “I’ve done all I can be bothered to do for you”, I guess it may be “adieu” to a Grand Slam this year. Still, if it’s a dry Spring evening in Paris, this match may be a treat. It’s not that often you see an international match where there are four wing three-quarters all of whom score tries for fun, but this time with Teddy Thomas and Damien Penaud on one side, Louis Rees-Zammit and Josh Adams on the other, this is such a game.