It’s fair to say that no-one was really expecting the scale of the upset in the Chesham & Amersham by-election. Overturning a Conservative majority of 16,000 and replacing it with a Lib Dem one of 8,000 is an impressive achievement.
However, Ed Davey’s declaration that “across the South, the Tory Blue Wall is beginning to crumble” smacks of hubris. While the percentage shares are dramatic (and of primary importance when contesting a FPTP election), the absolute numbers of votes cast might hint at a more boring reality.
Since 2005, the number of non-Tory votes has varied between 21,000 and 25,000 and yesterday’s result is towards the upper end of that range.
Meanwhile, the Conservative vote has been above 30,000 in every election since 2010 – until yesterday, when it plunged to just 13,000. But that’s in an election where turnout fell by a third. 18,000 fewer people voted yesterday than in the 2019 election.
For both the Tories and the Lib Dems, then, the key question is one of differential turnout. Chesham & Amersham had the 22nd highest turnout of any constituency in the UK in 2019 at almost 77%. To drop to just 52%, while not atypical of by-elections, is significant.
The belief that this was a safe constituency (never voted other than Conservative since it was created), the loss of a popular incumbent, the poor weather, and the continuing pandemic probably played a part in suppressing the Conservative vote, particularly in a constituency with a slightly older demographic profile than average.
The Lib Dems are known to have a fearsome ground game – they brought a huge number of activists in an effort to bring out their vote. Meanwhile, Labour’s vote dropped by 90% and the Greens were down by 50%. The thought of giving the Tories a bloody nose was clearly too tempting to resist.
None of this is to deny that the Conservatives have local policy issues – HS2 and the changes to planning regulations were targeted ruthlessly by the Lib Dems. But did this result in much in the way of vote-switching, or did it just add to the suppression of the usual Tory vote?
Looking ahead to a future general election, it seems unlikely that the Lib Dems are a shoo-in to retain the seat, despite their hefty new majority. Have 90% of Labour voters really switched allegiance in the long-term? Have the Conservatives really lost 56% of their 2019 voters in an affluent southern constituency? Neither seems probable.The Lib Dems are entitled to enjoy their success, but the Conservatives probably don’t have too much reason to lose sleep. That blue wall is tougher to demolish than it seems.
