Local election results paint a bleak picture for Labour

The fears of Labour campaigners across the country have been confirmed today, as Tory dominance outside London (and south of Scotland) is affirmed in local elections across the country.

It started with Conservative candidate Jill Mortimer’s barnstorming victory in the Hartlepool by-election early this morning. It continued in counties like Nuneaton & Bedworth in the Midlands, and Bishop Middleham and Cornforth in County Durham, where the Conservatives have swept council boards while Labour have suffered crippling losses.

For some counties, the margins have been razor tight. In Northumberland, the Conservatives squeaked an overall majority of just one seat after ballots were drawn on a dead-heat vote.

But the Tory hold over England is becoming clearer by the minute. Tees Valley, the region including Hartlepool, returned Tory Mayor Ben Houchen on a 73 per cent vote share. Not even the region’s Brexit figures – some of the highest in the country – reached that high. In rural, Brexit-voting areas the party is riding high.

It’s not been all bad for Labour. In Doncaster, mayor Ros Jones has won a third term and in Newcastle and neighbouring South Tyneside, Sunderland and Gateshead, Labour has held on while ceding councillors here and there.

Individual county results are a reminder that in an increasingly complex system of local government, national issues are not all that matters. There have been pockets of opportunity for smaller parties, like the Greens in Sheffield.

What is clear on a national level, however, is just how far the political realignments of the past few years have hurt Labour. Even in Sheffield, where the party lost control for the first time since 2007, it was a Green Party candidate who landed the killer blow. Starmer can’t seem to win right now, either with the young, urban left or with the working class.

“The Labour right (New Labour), the soft left (Miliband), the Labour left (Corbyn): all are busted”, tweeted Blue Labour, a party fringe group. Labour MPs including Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott have been scathing of Starmer’s managerial style. Where does the party go from here?

Things are a little different in Wales, where Labour has held power in the Senedd for 22 years. The Conservatives are hoping to nip at their heels in Brexit-voting industrial seats, especially in the south of the country.

But of the votes so far, it has been the Liberal Democrats, not Labour, who have suffered most. In Vale of Clwyd, the only seat to change hands so far, the Conservatives won by just 300 votes.  

The dismal nation-wide results for Labour mean hopes are pinned on Sadiq Khan in London to win a second term as mayor. Conservative candidate Shaun Bailey is mounting a strong challenge and while Khan is narrowly ahead, it seems unlikely that he will secure the 50 per cent of the vote needed to win the first round outright.

All counts are expected to be finalised over the weekend.