Local elections 2022: Where are the battlegrounds and what are the polls saying?

If the latest polls are anything to go by then the Conservatives are set to lose hundreds of council seats across the country when voters head to the polls on Thursday. 

A Survation poll puts Labour 13 points ahead, while Ipsos suggests Labour is five points ahead of the Tories. Around 6,000 council seats are being contested including of London’s boroughs as well as a number of key marginal councils in the so-called Red Seat constituencies which swung nationally to the Tories at the last election. 

The local elections fall in the midst of a tumultuous period for the government, with the Tories having fallen behind in opinion polls following the Partygate scandal coming to light. According to YouGov, 66% of respondents said Boris Johnson was incompetent.

In England, there are over 4,000 council seats being fought in 146 councils, these will include all 1,817 council seats in London’s 32 boroughs being elected. In Scotland and Wales, elections are taking place for all of the council seats, with 1,219 available in 32 councils in Scotland, and 1,234 seats available in Wales’ 22 councils.

With over 20,000 council seats in the UK, these local elections are set to elect over one quarter of the nation’s councillors. While this is a significant proportion, many of the elections taking place on 5 May are in Labour held areas, due to Labour’s success in the 2018 local elections. In London for example, the Conservatives hold only seven of the 32 borough councils.

Councils choose whether to elect their members every four years – as in Scotland and Wales, this means that not all of England’s council seats are going to the polls this year. Some councils hold elections for half of their seats every two years or elect one third of councillors each year for three years and hold no elections in the fourth year.

Local elections, despite generally only having a turnout of just over 30%, give voters an opportunity to have their say when it comes to local issues. With local authorities receiving around one quarter of all public spending, they control what happens to schools, roads, social care, planning permission, rubbish collection and libraries.

The contest is likely to be especially fierce in a number of marginal councils.

One key battleground will be Hartlepool, where the Tories celebrated a historic by-election victory last year. The party currently holds a minority coalition alongside independents, having taken the council from Labour last year for the first time – neighbouring County Durham was won by the Conservatives in 2021, having been a Labour stronghold since 1919. With 13 seats available in this election, Labour will be seeking to unseat its Tory opposition, and prove that it still has a strong foothold in the area.

Conservative councillor for Hartlepool’s Seaton ward, Gordon Cranney, told Reaction: “I’ve made great strides in my first 12 months, and I only wish to have the chance to improve. I’ve answered many residents’ concerns.

“My message to the undecided is clear,” Cranney added. “A Hartlepool councillor is for local politics in Hartlepool, I cannot control any problems down in Westminster, but I can help improve Hartlepool and Seaton Carew.”

In London, Barnet, will also be in Labour’s sights. The Conservatives took control of the borough in 2018 after a large chunk of the borough’s considerable Jewish population turned against Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership of the party. A Labour win in Barnet would come after Keir Starmer’s attempts to rid his party of antisemitism and regain the faith of Jewish Labour voters.

Councillor Barry Rawlings, leader of Barnet Labour, said: “It’s feeling positive on the door-step and Keir Starmer’s strong leadership is a big factor, together with Labour’s offer on key things like tackling the cost-of-living crisis, including by cancelling the Conservatives’ national insurance rise, for example.

“We aren’t taking anything for granted, however. Elections in Barnet are often close and we will be campaigning hard up until 10pm on polling day.”

Labour will be keen to tackle Wandsworth where it won more votes than the Tories in 2018. But the ward boundaries prevented Labour from taking control. The reorganisation of boundaries since then could work in favour of Starmer’s party this time round.

Two Welsh regions may also prove a focus for Labour hopefuls; Bridgend and Flintshire both have Labour minority administrations. Whilst the Welsh Conservatives will undoubtedly be hoping to hold on to their gains in the area, Labour candidates will likely aim to wrestle control from independents and tip the balance to reclaim majority control.

Peterborough, where the Conservatives are just shy of a majority – holding 28 out of 60 seats – could prove to be an indicator of national voting intention. Won by labour in a 2019 by-election, and then lost to the Tories in the general election just six months later, the city council now has 19 seats up for election.

Consolidating previous gains and creating a majority is on the cards for the Conservatives, whereas Labour can only hope to create a minority administration. Even so, Labour success in Peterborough would signal a shift in public opinion.

Local elections are often seen as a test of the leading party’s mettle. Significant losses for the Conservatives – and they will be significant, according to Electoral Calculus, whose polls predict that the Tories are on course to part with 800 seats in England and Wales – could herald the arrival of Boris Johnson’s day-of-reckoning.

Given the recent turmoil that the Conservative party has faced, from Partygate and the PM’s fine to the furore surrounding the non-dom status of Rishi Sunak’s wife and the conviction of the Wakefield MP Imran Khan for child sexual assault, success in the local elections is looking increasingly unlikely.

Even if Labour gains 800 seats from the Tories, 20 per cent of the 4,000 up for grabs, it may not prove to be a catastrophe for the Conservative party itself – indeed, Electoral Calculus’ polls do not suggest that the Tories will lose any councils – instead, it is the Prime Minister himself who will take the flak.

Chris Curtis, head of political polling at Opinium, told Reaction: “I don’t think that the results of the local elections, whilst they will be bad for the Conservatives, will be quite as bad as the national polls suggest.

“Most of the seats that are being contested this time were last fought in 2018. Back in 2018, Labour was also doing pretty well in the polls. Labour is not doing much better than they were then, which means the Conservatives might not lose as many seats as we might think.”

Curtis added: “I think that it’s unlikely that the results will be bad enough for Conservative MPs to decide to vote against Boris Johnson in a vote of no confidence. I think that would be more likely to happen after we get the Sue Gray report, or more fines.”

The losses might, however, be enough to trigger a movement against Boris Johnson. As a forewarning of struggles to come, they will signal to the Conservatives that any faith that voters had once held in the Prime Minister has long since eroded, possibly beyond repair. And with Sue Gray’s “excoriating” report on the way, and the possibility of more fines to come, a Tory failure at the polls could be one of the straws to break Boris’ back.