Looks like a new Tory leader will need an immediate general election

Not only is Brexit stuck – in a long delay featuring meandering talks between weary ministers and their Labour counterparts – but this entire government has ground to a halt because it is knackered, bust, moribund, utterly done for.

Nick Watt on BBC Newsnight got to the heart of it with his report on Monday evening on the government admitting that it cannot even put together a Queen’s Speech. Normally, a Prime Minister and the cabinet – directed by Number 10 – put together a package of legislation and the Queen comes to parliament to say that her government, it is her government, will do assorted forward-looking stuff and propose a range of bills. “My government will bring forward legislation to improve the viability of Britain’s water vole population…” and so on.

The current government can’t even do that. Ministers can’t take the risk of doing anything legislative. Theresa May has a majority of five and could easily lose a vote on a Queen’s Speech. It would only take handful of Tories or DUP MPs to object to a comma, or some mild proposal, to bring the whole thing crashing down. The government can’t get anything through. It has all but ceased to be. While ministers make statements to parliament, and committees meet, everyone involved is going through the motions and waiting for… something.

Knowing this, the thoughts of MPs turn to what – or who – follows this lamentable administration led by Theresa May. All conversations with Tory MPs, peers and activists end up in an anguished discussion about the drawbacks of the leadership rivals.

The race this summer will be like the Grand National. But what happens when they have charged round the course? After confused riders have been dismounted and the few left make a breathless last dash for the line? The victor will barely be back in the winner’s enclosure before the trouble starts.

For the winner will inherit the most mind-bending mess, in which they will still have a majority of five at best. If the winner is someone robust on Brexit – pledged to renegotiate with the EU and switch to no deal if necessary – then some Tory Remainers could resign the whip, leaving a new Prime Minister with no majority. Worse, they might not even get to be Prime Minister because they would not command the support of the Commons in a confidence vote from the start.

Any new leader wishing to avoid this, but elected with pro-Brexit votes, could appeal to Tory Remainers and Labour to try a re-run of something like the May deal – but then he, or she, will be instantly branded a sell-out, within weeks of having been chosen as the big, bad boss of Brexit. A new leader could thus be ruined within months and back in May’s position or worse by Christmas. With May and others deprived of office, watching, amused presumably, from the backbenches.

No, it looks as though a new Tory leader will have to go for it – instantly – and say the country deserves an election and they seek a mandate. In doing so they will have to take a traditional (18th century?) view that they run the risk of being PM for only a month. But stop blubbing, these things happen in history.

Consider how fearful and weak they will look if they don’t and just sit there, trying and failing to get the EU to ditch the backstop, revealed rapidly to be incapable of doing Brexit or anything else.

Remember, the winner will have been elected by a narrow constituency of Tory MPs and the Tory membership. In the eyes of the country they will lack legitimacy and talk of proroguing parliament would start a national riot. They will have a majority of five at best, with no chance of getting backing on Brexit or putting together a programme for a Queen’s Speech, and at worst no majority and no confidence in the Commons from the start.

The logic of events points towards trying for a mandate in an election. This is beyond high risk, I know. Yet it is hard to see an alternative to an election this year once the Tories have selected their latest victim.