No end to war in Ukraine. Instead, according to President Macron, “An end of abundance”. The two things are related, but Macron’s warning was wider than the fallout from Russia’s invasion of its neighbour, and he was right to make it.

Six months on from the invasion, the war now seems to be in its third phase – one of protracted attrition. Phase one saw an overconfident and poorly led Russian military fail in its aims to sweep through the country and take Kyiv. That gave the Americans, British, and others, time to start the flow of weapons which has led to the current status. In phase two, Russia focussed on the Donbass region and made gains – linking the Donbass down to Kherson and Crimea, via Mariupol. It now occupies a fifth of Ukraine.