Macron makes war in Ukraine a little less likely

Emmanuel Macron’s peace mission to Moscow was fraught with danger from the start and may in the end come to nothing. But no one – least of all Joe Biden and Boris Johnson – can say that the French President wasted his time or that his last-minute attempt to avert war between Russia and Ukraine was a fool’s errand. 

There were only three possible outcomes to Macron’s daring démarche. The first was that he would fail totally, and publicly, to persuade Vladimir Putin to draw back on his implied threat to invade Ukraine, in which case his departure for Kiev, en route for Berlin and Paris, would have been the most humiliating for a French leader since Napoleon’s retreat from Moscow in 1812. 

That didn’t happen. Putin spent five hours with his guest, including a dinner of reindeer meat, sweet potatoes and blackberries, and described their talks as both serious and substantive. 

The second possible outcome was that Macron would return home, proclaiming peace in our time even as Putin, having reconsidered his options, ordered his commanders on the ground to prepare for battle. 

That hasn’t happened either. At least not yet. 

The third possibility was, and remains, that Macron achieved what he set out to do, saving face all round while promoting himself as the most resourceful and audacious world leader of his generation. 

It is too early to say mission accomplished. A lot of water will flow under the bridges of the Dnieper before this particular international crisis is resolved. Any errors, forced or unforced, in the days ahead could end in disaster. 

Macron’s next task is to report to Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky, on what he learned in Moscow before talking again, by video link, to Putin. He will also, as a matter of urgency, wish to speak with President Biden as well, later in the day, as briefing Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, newly returned from crunch talks in Washington. 

The next few days would be decisive, Macron told journalists, and would require intensive discussions “which we will pursue together”. 

For his part, Putin was more cautious. Some of what the French President had put forward “could form the basis for further joint steps”. But it was “probably still too early” to come to any conclusion. 

If Ukraine joined Nato, he said, and attempted to take back Crimea (annexed by Russia in 2014) the result could be that Europe would be sucked into a major armed conflict. 

“Do you want France to get into a fight with Russia?” he asked French reporters. “That’s what will happen. And there will be no winners.” 

But for now, as the West takes stock and Biden draws up America’s response to any Russian incursion, the world can at least draw a breath. 

By its nature, Macron’s trip to Moscow was a high-stakes initiative, laden with hubris. Macron faces a re-election battle this spring and would be eaten alive by his rivals were he to be perceived as Putin’s patsy. In addition, as the current President of the Council of the European Union he is keen to show that he is the leader to whom the EU should turn in times of crisis. 

Observers – impressed, but also taken aback, by the seeming smooth nature of the talks – have speculated that Macron knew something in advance that led him to believe that progress could be made. Had he been informed, for example, that compromise over the future of the breakaway Ukrainian province of Donbas – allowing it, perhaps, to declare for Russia – might form the basis of a solution? Was he, in fact, pushing at an open door? 

It is too early to say. But if progress is made – if Russia pulls back its troops from Ukraine’s frontiers and agrees to enter into talks aimed at restoring peace and stability to the region – there is little doubt that Macron will claim a large slice of the credit, winning not only the confidence of Europe but the gratitude of Washington. 

Much depends on how the Ukrainian government responds to what Macron has to tell them. If President Zelensky digs his heels in and appeals to the US and Europe to reject any deal with Russia that involves further dismemberment of Ukraine, we will be back to the starting gate. 

In London, Boris Johnson will be torn. He had hoped he would be the one, working with Biden, who averted a major conflict on Europe’s doorstep. Instead, he has been up to his neck in “Partygate” and wild claims about Keir Starmer, unable to keep a telephone appointment with Putin because of his appearance in the House of Commons to apologise to MPs for his latest bad behaviour. 

The Prime Minister warned in The Times on Tuesday that Britain would not flinch if Russia went ahead with an invasion. But he did so from the safety of Downing Street, having been described by his newly appointed communications director as “not a complete clown”. 

In Moscow, by contrast, Putin was heaping praise on his French counterpart, noting that “France is always much involved in the taking of decisions fundamental to European security” and that he appreciated the involvement of France in finding a solution to the present crisis. 

Game and set to Macron, if not yet match. 

Putin is not given to easy flattery. Above all, he is a pragmatist. He needed to find a way out of a situation that was threatening to get out of control. In spite of his protestations that he had no intention of ordering an invasion, he had painted himself into a corner and needed an exit strategy that worked in short order. Macron gave him that. He understands Russia’s fears over Nato’s eastwards migration and, while rejecting the creeping Russification of Ukraine, will seek to ensure that Moscow is shown the respect that is its due.

Macron was careful to stress to his host that divide and rule were not the way forward. In the event of a widening conflict, the EU and Nato were bound to stand behind the security of the Baltic States, Finland and Poland. But he was equally clear that there could be no security for Europe that did not include security for Russia. 

The two leaders are serious men with serious ambitions. Putin – who has described the breakup of the Soviet Union as the greatest disaster of the 20th century – is driven by his desire to re-establish Russian greatness. Macron, equally prideful, hopes to restore France to what he sees as its rightful place as the beating heart of the European Union. In Moscow, their interests came together, with the Frenchman doubly motivated as he seeks to dispose of his rivals in the upcoming presidential elections. 

Could everything go horribly wrong in the days ahead? Of course. A nervous Ukrainian soldier could respond to a sudden noise on the Russian side of the border by opening fire on the enemy lines. Biden could have a rush of blood to the head and invite Ukraine to join Nato. Or Putin could wake up with a headache and decide, the Hell with Macron! War is not an exact science, and everything that was at issue last week remains at issue this week. 

But the French President, taking everything into account, including the risk to his own reputation, has made a judgment call and come down on the side of empathy and understanding. If fighting does start and thousands of young men and women, Russian and Ukrainian, end up in body bags, it will not be because Emmanuel Macron didn’t do what he could to secure the peace.