Macron rolls the dice on immigration and tacks to the right

Someone has been whispering into the ear of Emmanuel Macron on the subject of immigration, and the President, apparently, has been listening.

You might have supposed that Macron had enough on his plate already, what with the ongoing assaults on Paris by the gilets-jaunes and last week’s terrorist attack on the famous Christmas market in Strasbourg. “Beleaguered” hardly begins to describe the state of his presidency in the last, dismal days of 2018.

But immigration is suddenly back on everybody’s lips in France. The Cabinet discussed the subject at its weekly meeting on December 12 and, in spite of a plea for calm by the prime minister, Édouard Philippe, reportedly identified it as something that had to be addressed as a matter of urgency in the year ahead.

Two days earlier, in his televised address to the nation following the worst disturbances Paris had seen for a generation, Macron had publicly caved into the gilets-jaunes by announcing an increase in the minimum wage and cancelling planned taxes on workers’ pensions. This came on top of his previous revocation of an increase in the tax on diesel.

But he didn’t stop there. He went on: “I also want to reach an accord with the nation on what is its deepest identity, which requires us to address the question of immigration. We have to face it. The fundamental changes [that have taken place] demand deep and shared reflection and an unprecedented debate. This will have to take place at the national level in our institutions, but everyone must be involved. Government, regional assemblies, social partners and associations will all have their share. I want to take the pulse of our country.”

On the face of it, the President’s sudden interest in immigration was without context. The street protests of the previous three weeks were about the economic difficulties faced by ordinary people, especially in the provinces. Those taking part wanted more money in their pocket to pay bills and buy diesel. They were not calling for a crackdown on immigrants.

So what is going on? The most obvious assumption has to be that Macron, for once, is attempting to get ahead of the pack. The issue of immigration, most obviously Muslim immigration, hadn’t gone away. It had simply receded while other more immediate issues came to the fore. But simmering beneath the service of public disquiet was a deep-seated concern that French society had been disrupted and thrown off balance by the continuing influx of immigrants from North Africa and other parts of the Muslim world.

The islamist attacks in Paris and Nice, which claimed hundreds of lives, had threatened to bring this concern to the boil. But the emergence of Macron, with his pledge to transform France for the better in every possible way, had a calming effect, causing all but the most disaffected to suspend their rage and to give the new man in charge time to deliver on his promises.

That time is now up.

It may also be the case that intelligence made available to the Élysée warned of a racial, anti-immigrant element among the protesters that, if allowed to break surface, could result in blood on the streets. Macron is just about holding his own as things are. If the banlieues were to go up in flames, he would be finished.

An estimated 5.7 million residents of France, most of them citizens, were born abroad, for the most part in North Africa, but also in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, Afghanistan and Pakistan. More than a quarter of a million new arrivals were issued with residents’ vias in 2017, and as many again are assumed to have put down roots in twelve months now ending. On top of these legal immigrants are at least 100,000 asylum-seekers and as many as 400,000 illegals.

Most of the new arrivals head for the big cities – Paris, Lyon, Lille, Marseille, Nantes, Toulouse, Bordeaux and Strasbourg. Gradually, however, the number of immigrants living in the deep countryside has risen, causing the rural French to take on board an issue that until now was considered essentially urban. The gilets-jaunes may not include racial or immigrant slogans on their banners and posters. But there can be little doubt – especially in the wake of another deadly shooting – that the issue will move up the agenda of at least some of those hoping to lead and direct the protests.

Thus far, Macron has done nothing more than give a little air-time to the issue. He clearly wishes it to be known that he is reflecting public concerns, not encouraging an outburst of patriotic fervour.

Not everyone is convinced. Dominique Sopo, a leading anti-racist activist, raised near the Belgian border by a Togolese father and a French mother, has accused Macron of “throwing immigrants to the wolves,” which seems a bit of a stretch but probably reflects fears among Muslims and others that they will be held responsible for the social and economic difficulties that undoubtedly lie ahead.

What is beyond doubt is the part played in the debate now unfolding by the former National Front, recently rebadged as the Rassemblement National, or National Rally. The party’s leader, Marine Le Pen, was trounced by Macron in the 2017 presidential election. But since then, not only has the President’s star fallen, but the Right has been gifted a potential route back to power and influence by way of the gilets-jaunes.

Should Le Pen succeed in wresting control of the protests away from what passes for its current leadership (and she faces competition from far-left anarchists as well as the France Insoumise party of Jean-Luc Mélenchon), immigration could morph into a dominant theme in next years’ elections to the European Parliament. What Macron intends to be a national debate, moderated by politicians and the trade unions, could quickly turn nasty.