An international manhunt is now on for the perpetrator of what is believed to be the most serious US military intelligence leak since the stash of sensitive material released by Edward Snowden a decade ago.
Little is known about the identity of the leaker but he is thought to be a gun enthusiast in his 20s who obtained classified documents while working on a US military base, before posting them on a group chat section of Discord, an encrypted instant messaging platform used by gamers.
According to reports in the Washington Post, the person involved sent the classified information to a group of about two dozen men and boys on Discord who shared a “mutual love of guns, military gear and God.” It’s understood that the leaker was not working for any foreign power but simply critical of US overreach. Discord, which has millions of users, is said to be co-operating with law enforcement agencies in the US.
Security experts around the world are now on red alert for more highly sensitive – and embarrassing – military and intelligence information to find its way online. And the Pentagon is determined to track down the source.
Lloyd Austin, the US defence secretary, has pledged to “turn over every rock” in the hunt to find the leaker.
These leaks are so significant for several reasons, mainly because of the impact they could have on the outcome of the war in Ukraine. Information has suggested shortfalls in Kyiv’s weapons supplies, with one document from late February warning that Ukraine’s “ability to provide medium range air defence to protect the [frontlines] will be completely reduced by May 23.”
Another bombshell revelation is that Serbia has been secretly deploying weapons to Ukraine, despite being regarded as one of Moscow’s closest European allies.
The documents also reveal the strength of US surveillance on Russian military planning, indicating that Washington has even been able to alert Ukraine to many of Moscow’s imminent missile strikes and targets.
Such information runs the risk of helping the Kremlin. Alerting Russia, for instance, to the degree to which the US has penetrated the Russian ministry of defence through intercepted communications and human intelligence sources could now compromise these channels.
What’s more, details contained in some of the leaked documents on rates of fire for US-provided systems, such as artillery rocket systems, will – if accurate – prove militarily useful to the Russia.
Aside from the implications for Washington’s enemies, the security breach will also harm its relationship with allies.
The intelligence relationship between the US and allies is in jeopardy thanks to the details in the documents about other countries’ sensitive military operations. For instance, as reported yesterday in the Hound, one leak suggests that Britain has the largest contingent of special forces on Ukrainian soil, with as many as 50 elite troops currently deployed in Kyiv.
The revelations will also anger US allies by reminding them of the degree to which Washington spies not just on foes but on friends too.
The documents suggest that the US has been keenly surveilling Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, as well as keeping close tabs on the world’s top diplomat. According to a fresh leak today, Washington has been closely monitoring UN secretary general, Antonio Guterres, and raised concern that he has been too soft on Moscow, for instance, when it came to overseeing the Russia-Ukraine Black Sea grain deal.
As for whether these leaks are trustworthy, US intelligence agencies are still racing to assess the validity of the photographed documents. Some of the images circulating are likely to have been doctored but, either way, some of the damage will be irreversible.
One document, for instance, purports to reveal a list of names of CIA intelligence operatives working in Ukraine. Even if this information is inaccurate, if those mentioned are real people, the mere suggestion that they could be working for US intelligence agencies is enough to put their lives at risk.
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