Mariupol’s last stand

Vladimir Putin has scrapped plans to bombard Mariupol’s sprawling Azovstal steel plant – the last bastion of Ukrainian resistance within the shattered southern port city.

Instead, the Russian President has ordered his soldiers to seal up the four square-mile building – with the final 2,000 Ukrainian fighters inside – so that not even “a fly gets through”.

Holed up in the plant is the 36th Marine Brigade, whose commander, Maj Serhiy Volyna, insists his troops will not surrender, as well as the controversial Azov Brigade – a Ukrainian militia linked to far-right nationalists. According to Volyna, there are also 500 wounded soldiers and hundreds of women and children hiding alongside them. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made an offer to Moscow today to swap trapped Mariupol citizens for captured Russian soldiers after attempts to evacuate 6,000 more citizens on Wednesday resulted in just four buses leaving the city. 

Will Russia’s blockade of Azovstal secure a Ukrainian surrender in the city? On Wednesday, a marine commander trapped inside the plant warned that injured soldiers are “rotting” without medicine and other essentials, and his men had just days, if not hours, left.

That being said, Russia will need to maintain a strong military presence to prevent Ukrainians from breaking out of the huge industrial area. This is inconvenient for Putin: his tactic to switch-up from bombard-to-blockade is likely a reflection of his eagerness to redeploy Russian troops to the east. 

While the weeks of continuous shelling has led to the near-destruction of Mariupol and created a stark humanitarian crisis for its citizens, efforts to capture the city have also worn down the Kremlin. 

The battle for Mariupol has drained vital resources. Securing the port city is a key strategic aim as it will create a land bridge between the Donbas region and Crimea. But now, Putin is anxious to press on with his eastern offensive. 

Fighting has continued along a 300-mile front in the east of Ukraine today, where, according to an overnight assessment by the US-based Institute for the Study of War, Moscow has secured “minor gains”, including the capture of some parts of the key frontline towns of Rubizhne and Popasna. 

Of particular note, we’re also seeing evidence in these towns of Moscow re-building its army with foreign recruits. In the town of Popasna in the eastern Luhansk region, Ukrainian forces have reported the presence of Syrian or Libyan mercenaries fighting alongside the Russians. They are likely to be recruits of the Wagner Group – Russia’s notorious private military company.

The additional recruits could leave the Ukrainians in the east even more outnumbered by the Russians than current estimates. But, as we’ve witnessed in Mariupol, outnumbering the Ukrainian forces will not alone make for an easy victory.