Theresa May is on the brink. We will know by 10 o’clock tonight whether she will be finally ousted… but we know very little else. If she wins, then what? If she loses, then what? Well, a new Conservative leader, but then what? Can’t we all just have a quiet, non-political Christmas? No.
The Prime Minister has never been so weak. When the ERG launched their ultimately botched coup just weeks ago, it seemed likely that May would survive it, but then it never materialised. The magic number is 158, the number of MPs needed to topple the PM, and it looked very doubtful the ERG had the numbers. Since then, the PM has managed to alienate even more people.