May-Corbyn Brexit pact concept stuck with the same old problems

The cross-party negotiations between Labour and the Conservatives -pitched as a way to achieve some kind of Brexit consensus – were in reality an attempt by a desperate Number 10 machine at a stitch-up, trying to apportion some of the blame for the Brexit mess onto Labour. It hasn’t panned out as such, and May looks closer to the edge of her premiership than ever.

As May and Corbyn meet to discuss the future of these talks, where are we left?

The ongoing talks have yet to produce results. Theresa May is trying to bolt a compromise onto her deal that will get it past MPs. Corbyn wants part of this compromise to include a customs union.

The catch is this: the number of Labour MPs May manages to win over via some kind of customs union compromise will have to outweigh the number of Tories she will lose because of that very compromise. And a letter sent to the Prime Minister today illustrates just how difficult that will be.

Thirteen former cabinet members, and chairman of the 1922 Committee Sir Graham Brady, have written to May, warning her to reject Jeremy Corbyn’s customs union Brexit demands. They include Brexiteers Dominic Raab and Boris Johnson, as well as Gavin Williamson – dismissed earlier this month over the Huawei leak. Sir Michael Fallon, another former defence secretary and original Remainer, is also a signatory. They all voted for May’s deal on 29th March.

The letter warns May that striking a customs union style compromise with Labour will lose her what is left of the support she has among her party. It reads:

“We believe that a customs union-based deal with Labour will very likely lose the support of Conservative MPs, like us, who backed the withdrawal agreement in March… and you would be unlikely to gain as many Labour MPs to compensate. More fundamentally, you would have lost the loyal middle of the Conservative Party, split our party and with likely nothing to show for it. No leader can bind his or her successor so the deal would likely be at best temporary, at worst illusory.”

Iain Duncan Smith, former Tory leader and also a signatory, said today: “She has become intransigent and doesn’t realise her deal isn’t going anywhere.” (Become!?)

Fallon also told the BBC today: “If they are going to include permanent membership of a customs union then, frankly, we would be better off staying in the European Union because at least then we would have a voice in the trade arrangements that are being negotiated.”

Number 10 has hit back at claims that the talks will result in May pushing through a permanent customs union style Brexit. They have said any move towards a customs union will merely be a stepping stone to a cleaner Brexit.

Soft-Brexiteers in the cabinet are reportedly looking for another round of indicative votes on alternative Brexit proposals, if the cross-party negotiations collapse. It’s a cunning plan – considering both rounds of indicative votes held this year have resulted in no options receiving a majority. The danger (apart from the obvious one of another government defeat) is that if nothing receives a majority again, then the two options facing the government become a no-deal Brexit or a second referendum. May has pledged against holding second referendum multiple times – but May also pledged to leave the customs union, and pledged to leave the EU on 29th March.

Meanwhile Corbyn is facing calls from his own party to harden his Brexit stance – either from Remainers in favour of a second referendum or from Leavers looking for a stronger Brexit. So far their policy has been opaque. It might be a customs union – temporary or permanent; a second referendum – but only on May’s bad deal and not Corbyn’s so far non-existent but assuredly excellent deal; or a general election – which will see Corbyn waltz into No 10 with a comfortable majority to pass a deal which might be impossible to procure. Crystal clear.

The lay of the land then looks something like this: if May strikes a compromise customs union Brexit with Labour she may still not have a majority to pass it. Her deal really is the only deal on offer, and that can’t command a majority either. The legal default is still leaving without a deal. But parliament has made it clear through a series of votes since January that it’ll do everything in its power to prevent that. A second referendum is on the cards – something May has promised she won’t endure – in which Leave might very well win again.

May will meet the 1922 Committee on Thursday, with pressure growing on her to set out a timetable for her departure. Initially, she offered her resignation on condition of the Withdrawal Agreement passing. But with a recent mauling in the local elections, and another certain mauling in the Europeans next week, the cross-party talks stagnating, and her deal unlikely to garner any more support than the 344-286 defeat last time round, it’s becoming increasingly clear that she is running a completely non-functioning government and her time is nearly up.

When May leaves we will see a new leadership contest and a likely general election. But the problem is this: for the Brexit impasse to be solved one party is going to have to corral a sizeable and stable majority. Given the current climate, this is a tall ask.

Let us know your view. Send a letter for publication to letters@reaction.life