At the European Council summit yesterday EU leaders granted Theresa May an extension to Article 50. If her deal passes next week Article 50 will be delayed until 22nd May. If her deal fails an extension will be granted until 12th April – time in which the government can plan its next steps or request a longer extension.
Theresa May has said this week that she could not tolerate a delay to Brexit that goes beyond 30th June – either indicating she will resign over being faced with a lengthy delay, or indicating that she’ll back a no deal exit in the event of her deal failing next week.
But she faces a tricky problem in passing her deal next week. This weekend there is no sign she has the votes for it, and no sign she is likely to get them either.
When MPs voted last week to extend Article 50 there were two basic prospects facing May. There would either be a long extension up to or over a year, or a short extension to give Commons the time to get its affairs in order.
The prospect of a long extension (which is still very much on the table from the EU’s perspective in an emergency, despite May’s commitment to a short delay), and therefore the prospect of a softened Brexit, a general election or no Brexit at all could frighten the ERG and the DUP. No deal is their preference, but any deal is better than no Brexit. So the obvious solution for the ERG is to back May’s deal rather than risk losing Brexit altogether.
On the other hand, a short extension (now granted) could frighten Labour (who are united in their aversion to no deal) with the prospect of being driven to another cliff edge and crashing out without a deal anyway. They don’t want May’s deal, but any kind of deal is preferable to a no deal. So, for Labour the obvious solution is to back May’s deal and avert a no deal exit.
Unfortunately, both of these things can’t be true at the same time. Whatever frightens Labour about the risk of a no deal Brexit is going to embolden the ERG into pursuing that outcome. There are two avenues to secure more votes for the deal: threaten the ERG with a long extension or panic Labour with a cliff edge no deal. May can’t pursue both.
Perhaps May could rely on a last minute Labour abstention, or less-plausibly a last minute decision to allow Labour MPs a free vote. That could possibly see just enough Labour MPs too panicked about the prospect of a no deal to come round to the deal, counteracting the Tory intractables who will vote down May’s deal under any circumstances.
As it stands, May is heading for a defeat in Meaningful Vote 3 almost as heavy as the last time she tried.
