Brexit was always about three things: driving out immigrants, freeing up Westminster to Make Britain Great Again and giving David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband a kick up the arse. As far as the last is concerned, the bruised rears of the former leadership troika were soon replaced by another group of arses, who between them have reduced our negotiations with Europe to something approaching farce.
I remain a Remainer. Leaving the EU, in my opinion, will prove to be a mistake of historic proportions. But I am not naïve. I accept the inevitability of Brexit and my chief concern now is that our leaders, such as they are, should pull themselves together in time to get the best deal possible.
So far, with the hands of the clock at around twenty-past-eleven, it’s not looking good. Just as bad cases make bad law, so bad decisions lead to bad consequences.
Leavers, who in in the last year have worked themselves up into a lather of indignation at the unfairness and arrogance of the 27, need to be reminded that the referendum was more than a kick up the arse for Europe, it was testicularly challenging. One of the Union’s largest and wealthiest member states, with its long tradition of diplomacy and military prowess, had decided to walk away after 43 years, proclaiming the EU to be a bureaucratic nightmare from which the UK was getting out just to time to avoid being part of its inevitable demise.
How do you suppose “Europe” felt, having bent over backwards to give Britain its annual 35 per cent budget rebate, as well as opt-outs from both the single currency and the Schengen Accords, to be told that the European Project – the greatest collaborative act between any group of nations in history – wasn’t worth a bucket of warm spit? When Nigel Farage trumpeted our “Independence Day” and a gleeful Boris Johnson jumped in to insult the very Commission with which the Government would have to sit down and negotiate, which, do you suppose, felt itself to be the injured party?
Months later, following the triggering of Article 50, what response should Brussels have made after being told by Britain that it expected in future to enjoy the benefits of membership without any of the obligations and without making more than a token contribution to the budget? Is it possible that the 27 felt it was Britain that was being unfair and arrogant?
We were like a man in his 60s who has just left his wife and joined a dating agency, but considers his pension to be his alone and contests her claim to alimony.
I mention all this not to stir up further resentment, but to put in context the current state of play between the warring factions. It is true that the EU has acted tough throughout the negotiations and that it is currently more, rather than less, likely to exact humiliating final terms from the British. My point is that this could all have been foreseen, and ought to have been. It was the shameful insouciance of the Government, made up as it is of fantasists and amateurs, that has brought us to this present pass.
David Davis, though affable and well-intentioned, has yet to win a round in his ongoing slugfest with Michel Barnier. Liam Fox is the Flying Dutchman of global trade, doomed to circle the world in a futile search for safe haven. Boris Johnson is a buffoon. Every day that he remains foreign secretary is a day wasted. And Theresa May wouldn’t know what a successful Brexit looks like if it punched her in the face, which it probably will. The reason she kept saying Brexit means Brexit in the days after the referendum turns out to be that she had no other definition to offer. The Prime Minister had assumed Remain would win the vote. She took on Brexit out of a sense of duty.
Nearly two years on, EU leaders are turning away from the British problem. They have issues enough of their own to resolve – not least Eurozone reform and the looming East-West split – and feel they have it covered. But as they make off into the middle distance, they still have a few taunts to throw at us.
Britain as the master of European defence and security? “Who are you kidding? Russia despises you, your navy is stuck in port or else up for sale and the U.S. prefers the swagger of Emmanuel Macron.” Britain as Europe’s banker? “Tell that to Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin, which are already taking up the slack as London moves into damage limitation mode.” Membership of “a” customs union or the European Economic Area? “Sure. Why not? But only if you do what you’re told, applying rules and regulations set in Brussels.”
And all with a bill for £40 billion, and rising!
Truly, this is where were are today. It is where the Government has taken us. Not one of the Tories’ post-referendum assurances has been vindicated by events. The reality is that the EU tells us what is going to happen, we bluster, and then we sign on the dotted line. In part, this was inevitable: 27 against one was never going to be a fair fight. But if the Tories had gone into the negotiations with a clear understanding of what was possible and what wasn’t, and, most importantly, if they had embarked on the talks without – absurdly – assuming that they were in charge, the outcome could have been significantly better, and a sight more dignified.
But they didn’t. They thought the Europeans would roll over in a frantic bid to sell us BMWs and Prosecco. In their heads they could already hear the swell of Handel’s Halleluja chorus.
Talk about hubris! And don’t even start me on Jeremy Corbyn and Labour.
Is it too late to secure honourable terms? I hope not, but I fear it may be – and not just because of the Irish border crisis, which even now is seen by the Tories as no more than a bump on the road. The damage has been done and the players on our side are the same ones who screwed up in the first place. All we can do is hope for the best and try to avoid the worst. Either that, of course, or we can flounce off, turning our backs on Europe and look instead to a world dominated by the U.S., China, India and Russia, none of which regards us as a place of any particular importance. At least, finally, we know what Brexit means.