I wrote yesterday that, by Wednesday morning, what seemed confusing would feel all so predictable and so it proved. The polling had indeed been wrong or, at least, recent polling had been deliberately misleading. This was the polling that many analysts believed was done in bad faith by the GOP to help swing national polling averages back in their favour and establish a big bold MAGA narrative that never reflected the moderate reality in the middle-ground of US politics.

Wednesday morning might not have brought much in the way of certainty. Nevada is still in the balance and if Democrats can’t retain the state, then to control the Senate, they would still need to win the Georgia runoff on 6th December. If they can take Nevada, victory in Georgia would be a bonus. Meanwhile, over in the House, Republicans look like they might take a small majority but even here it’s in the realm of speculation.