Monkeypox: should we be worried?

With Australia announcing its first case of Monkeypox following cases appearing in the UK, Europe, the US and Canada in recent weeks – concern is growing about the virus.

But is it going to be the next pandemic? Here’s what you need to know.

What is monkeypox?

While monkeypox was first discovered in monkeys in 1958, giving the virus its name, it is more commonly spread through rodents. The virus is endemic in Africa, occurring mostly in central and west African nations, near to tropical rainforests.

The virus, which usually spreads outside Africa via travel from affected areas, is part of the same family as smallpox, and as such can also be protected against using smallpox vaccines.

Currently, there are over 100 confirmed or suspected cases worldwide, with 20 confirmed cases in the UK, after Health Secretary Sajid Javid announced that 11 more cases had been confirmed.

The government, which has 5,000 doses of the smallpox vaccine, has ordered a further 20,000 in order to vaccinate health workers.

How does it spread?

The monkeypox virus, unlike Covid-19 and other airborne viruses, is spread through close contact with an infected person. The virus can gain access through broken skin, as well as through the eyes, nose, and mouth.

A cluster of UK cases has appeared in men who identify as gay or bisexual. However, Dr Michael Skinner of Imperial College London said it was too early to “assume that sexual activity was necessary for transmission.”

He added: “By nature, sexual activity involves intimate contact, which one would expect to increase the likelihood of transmission, whatever a person’s sexual orientation and irrespective of the mode of transmission.”

The virus can also be spread through infected animals, or items such as bedding that have been in contact with an infected person.

What are the symptoms?

The main symptoms of monkeypox are like those of the flu. Those infected are likely to experience fever, muscle aches, and chills. The virus also causes a rash that is similar to chickenpox.

In general, these symptoms are relatively mild, and according to the WHO, will only tend to last between two to four weeks.

In some cases, the virus can be more severe, and even fatal – in recent years, the virus’s fatality rate has been between three and six per cent.

Should we be worried?

Experts say that the chances of infection are low, and most of those infected will recover without treatment. 

Yet depending on the strain of the virus, mortality rates can vary. All the recorded cases in the UK are of the less deadly West African strain, which might kill one per cent of those infected, rather than the Congo strain, which is deadly in as many as ten per cent of patients.

In comparison with Avian Bird Flu – the H5N1 strain of which has a 60 percent mortality rate, having killed 456 people between 2003 and 2021 – the Monkeypox strain that has been found in the UK is far less dangerous, and is likely to be deadly in only one out of 100 cases.

Professor Paul Hunter from the University of East Anglia said: “Because these cases are being reported as the West African type it is unlikely that we will see particularly severe disease or that we would see sustained community transmission in the UK.”

Outbreaks of monkeypox have happened before – in 2003 the virus appeared in the US, the first time it had been seen outside Africa, but despite 81 cases, there were no deaths.

Of the recent cases in the UK, two of the infected patients had travelled from Nigeria and are likely to have been infected in the country. Another of the patients is a healthcare worker who was infected by one of the two.

Currently, cases have been recorded in 11 countries, including Spain which has 38 cases – the highest of any country.

Dr Michael Head of the University of Southampton said, “It would be very unusual to see anything more than a handful of cases in any outbreak, and we won’t be seeing Covid-style levels of transmission.”