More fudge from May
Theresa May emerged with yet another ‘compromise’ option on Brexit today. Now, compromise is good – incoherency dressed up as positive fudge is another thing altogether.
Today, May gestured towards several key features of the government’s ‘new plan’ on Brexit. She is expected to introduce major concessions to the EU into the British negotiating package. Oliver Robbins, the PM’s chief Brexit negotiator, set the tone this morning, telling ministers that a bespoke trade deal is off the cards, and that the UK would have to choose between a straightforward free trade agreement, which is unpalatable for business (but f*** them – amirite?), and a Norway-style model with EU institution retaining wide-ranging powers on customs and law.
In the Commons, to appease leading Brexiteers she signalled that membership of the EEA was off the cards but refused to clarify that the UK would leave the Common External Tariff after Brexit. Ah a mystery, inside an enigma she is indeed or more likely, as Andrew Lilico argues persuasively in Reaction today, this ‘low cunning’ tactic of evaporating the UK negotiating position into mere thin air may not get us anywhere if the EU sees it for what it is – incoherency dressed up as elegant riddling.
May has told the EU: “Take our Brexit plan seriously,” but today’s machinations had more of an air of the theatre of the absurd. It’s been reported that David Davis went into Number 10 not knowing what the plan was. An odd way for a PM to operate.
A mixed day for the Mexican nation – high excitement as a new President came to power and an second round exit at the World Cup to a rapidly improving Brazil side.
It has become the latest country to be swept up by the global craze of electing charismatic aging white men with radical credentials to power. Step forward Angel Manuel Lopez Obrador or AMLO for short. The parallels with our own magic Grandpa are eerie – an easy folksy charm, an adoring fan base, an anti-establishment ethic and vague plans for redistributive economic transformation. It’s proved wildly popular. Corbyn could learn from AMLO’s past, however – in office as Mayor in Mexico City, he governed pragmatically and effectively, making a series of well-judged compromises with business interests.
Trump hasn’t really figured as a dividing line in the election campaign as all the contenders roundly vilified the US President’s leadership, but it will be fascinating to see how these two charismatic populists interact. AMLO appears favourable to a new free trade agreement with America – that may not chime with Trump’s ‘America First’ instincts. Trump did congratulate him on his election on Twitter this morning.
I wrote a feature on AMLO for Reaction today – he’s a fascinating character and a serious operator too. I argue that it’s too early to make a judgement on his chances of success.
Merkel’s enemies continue to fail to land the final blow as Horst Seehofer, her conservative coalition partner of the CSU, seemed to have lost support from some of his own side after threatening to resign over Merkel’s handling of the migrant crisis. Some CSU representatives today signalled their support for Merkel, with both sides anxious to avoid new elections. She returned from Brussels last week with a fudge on border protection that seems to have persuaded enough key figures that she shouldn’t be forced out just yet. It’s a fragile peace and it could all unravel very quickly…
Alastair Benn
News editor