MPs defeat government again and leave May and the EU in a jam
Is it worth following the results of these endless votes on Brexit amendments and motions and all the rest? That is an uncomfortable question. I write about politics and the like for a living, and you dear Reaction subscriber pay (thank you, from us) to read the team on this site making sense of what is going on in politics. We write about much more than that, thank goodness. Nonetheless, you have a reasonable expectation that we will have a go at explaining what each twist and turn means. Finn McRedmond in our subscriber evening email today provides a crisp summary of the various defeats and botched votes.
Honestly though…
Parliament is going round and round in ever decreasing circles, the closer we get to the appointed day when Britain is supposed to leave the European Union. The tempers of some MPs are beyond frayed, and Rob Hutton of Bloomberg reported on Thursday evening that Tories are furious with each other over who has voted for what or not. He witnessed two of them shouting at each other, and not even over whose round it was. Some MPs I run into in Westminster look as though they are beyond caring. “I’m depressed. The government is rubbish. Parliament is a bunch of children arguing. I want to go on holiday. Why can’t I go on holiday? I need to go on holiday somewhere sunny,” one earlier this week told me. The government has cancelled the half-term recess next week, but some MPs are ignoring that, and nothing of note is scheduled to happen next week at Westminster.
Only, Brexit is little more than 40 days away and increasingly terrified businesses that trade physical stuff (banks and traders have factored it all in already) complain, rightly, that they have not a clue what the arrangements will be if there is no deal, that is if the MPs seeking to avoid no deal fail to block no deal.
My takeaway from tonight’s defeat of May? We’re too Brit-focussed when these votes happen, and pro-EU British commentators always line up to say that everything is bad for the UK.
Yes, this defeat leaves May in a jam, of course, because it undermines her negotiating position and the claim that she now had a majority for concessions that would lead to the Commons, possibly, passing her deal in a few weeks time if the EU conceded some tweaks. She doesn’t have a majority for anything.
But, it also leaves the EU in jam. Of course, we must get ready for some deeply unfunny “euro-fun totally crazy guy” tweets from assorted overpaid euro-bores on the EU side in Brussels saying that they have no idea what Britain wants.
Fine, but the EU wants to avoid no deal and it has helped land the UK government where it is. And the EU’s whole strategy has been predicated on avoiding a hard border in Northern Ireland. If no deal happens by accident, then Ireland, as the EU makes clear, will have to put up a hard border, or accept a border between the EU and Ireland. Oops.
The EU wants ideal. It wants this all to go away, what with difficult European Parliament elections looming. The well-connected Fabian Zuleeg asked a good question today on social media, about how an extension would work. Clue, it won’t. Fabian is the chief executive of the European Policy Centre, the body chaired by Herman Van Rompuy (for it is he) and stuffed with an advisory board that includes Lord Kerr, mad keen Remainer and architect of the ghastly Article 50.
Zuleeg asked how the European Parliament, which breaks up in April for the elections, can possibly ratify a Brexit deal during an extension if it’s not there any more? The whole extension thing falls apart when it collides with the calendar.
A very long extension, no Brexit effectively, is not an option, despite the deranged warblings of assorted ultra-remainers here in Britain. A medium-length extension doesn’t work, because the UK would have to take part in the EU election, which is the last thing EU types want. There are going to be sufficient angry populists around without adding in the Brits three years – three years! – since the British voted to leave the damned thing.
So, the answer, the way out of the jam, is for the EU to design, with Britain and Ireland, a tweak to the backstop. Or a reassurance of sufficient weight that means a deal passes the Commons and then the European Parliament soon. Then everyone can get on with their lives.
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Iain Martin and the team make sense of the news, providing commentary and analysis on the stories that matter in politics, geopolitics, economics and culture.