Need to know: Sweden’s election and the rise of the populist right

What was the result?

The Swedish Election has seen the far right party, the Sweden Democrats, win nearly 18% of the vote, up from 12.9% in the previous election. The governing centre-left coalition (led by the Social Democrats) retained the largest vote share, at around 40%, but they are only narrowly ahead of the centre-right groupings, who also won around 40% of the vote share. Both of these main alliances have refused to govern with Sweden Democrats.

What happens now?

The current governing alliance, headed by Prime Minister Stefan Lovfen, is made up of the Social Democrats and the Green Party, and they’re supported in parliament by the Left Party. The centre-right bloc consists of the Moderates, the Centre, the Liberals and the Christian Democrats. Now both blocs, who are basically tied and both short of a majority, will try and form some form of coalition. The new government could take weeks to form and requires either cross-bloc coalitions between the centre-right and centre-left, or one side will need to form an alliance with the Sweden Democrats. For the left, a coalition would need to include the ex-communist Left party which would in turn exclude co-operation from the centre-right. The Moderate party could form a centre-right government in coalition with the Christian Democrats which would imply some kind of parliamentary support from the Sweden Democrats.

So who are the Sweden Democrats?

Founded in 1988 they only entered parliament in 2010. They describe themselves as socially conservative with a nationalist foundation, and have risen on the back of opposition to mass immigration. The scale of migration surged in 2015. They are described most frequently as far-right, populist and anti-immigration. Jimmie Åkesson has been leader since 2005. For years they were linked to neo-Nazis and other far-right groups, but have recently attempted to rebrand, changing their logo from a flaming torch (like the UK’s National Front) to a blue and yellow daisy. They also advocate for a “Swexit” referendum on leaving the EU – but due to total lack of support from all other parliamentary parties this is unlikely to ever go ahead. Sweden is not in the euro, but it is a committed EU member.

Who are the governing party? 

The Social Democrats, led by Prime Minister Löfven, finished first in this election, maintaining their record of doing so in every election since 1917. However since 2006 they have seen their vote share steadily declining, losing governance to centre-right alliances twice between 2006 and 2014. They support generous social welfare provision paid for by progressive taxation.

How did this election tally with expectations? 

While the Sweden Democrats saw their vote share rise significantly from the previous election, they actually fell significantly short of most predictions that expected them to achieve around 25% of the vote share. However, the election does fit into the narrative of right-wing and populist surges across Europe, with Italy installing a new coalition government between Five Star and the right-wing League. And, in 2017 far-right Alternative for Germany won 12.6% of votes and in 2015 The Danish People’s Party won just over 20% in 2015.