On September 17th Israeli voters are scheduled to return to the polls for the second time this year. This is a historic occurrence even in a country that is notorious for its frequent elections, with almost no government to date having succeeded in serving its full term. This second election will take place a mere six months after a previous election that gave incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a chance to secure a record fifth term. On July 16th, Netanyahu is to become the country’s longest serving Prime Minister, surpassing the country’s first Prime Minister and one of its founding fathers, David Ben Gurion, who over the course of his two terms served for 13 years and 127 days.
Having failed to establish a 61 member-strong coalition government, Netanyahu opted to dissolve the Knesset, necessitating another round of elections. This decision was a risky one, particularly in light of his Likud party’s ties with Lt Gen (Res) Benny Gantz’s newly formed Blue and White party.
That Netanyahu was given the chance to form a coalition was down to President Reuven Rivlin, who according to Israeli electoral law has the power to bestow the task of forming a coalition upon the candidate he deems most likely to be able to do so. Convention states that if one candidate proves incapable of forming the coalition within the allotted time frame, the President has the power to bestow this task upon the second most likely candidate, in this case Blue and White’s Lt Gen (res) Gantz. Netanyahu, in a desperate attempt to cling to power, made use of a loophole in the Basic Law on the Knesset, allowing him, with the help of a regular majority, to instead dissolve the Knesset and call for new elections. Should the upcoming elections result end in a similar tie, President Rivlin is unlikely to give Netanyahu a second chance.
By opting to dissolve the Knesset, Netanyahu has shown himself to be a political opportunist, seeking to ensure his own political gains over the stability of the country. Being seen by many as having provided the country with stability throughout his previous terms, Netanyahu’s image as Mr. Security has been undermined by recent escalations on the Palestinian front and a perceived weak approach to Hamas in Gaza. This image has been similarly undermined by the inclusion in Lt Gen (res) Gantz’s party of a slew of former security chiefs, including former Defense Minister and notorious hawk Boogie Ya’alon and former IDF Chief of Staff Lt Gen (res) Gabi Ashkenazi. With security being the primary (and some would say only) issue on Netanyahu’s agenda, Blue and White’s list is sure to continue to pose a risk to his rule. Projecting an image of stability in light of Netanyahu’s political incisiveness, alongside the inclusion of moderate politicians such as former Finance Minister Yair Lapid, it would not be surprising if this party were to beat Netanyahu’s Likud in the next election.
While in the recent past the political right in Israel has traditionally been the strongest camp, with the left significantly more fragmented, this election cycle has exhibited growing divisions on the right. With central figures such as former Education Minister Bennet and former Justice Minister Shaked leaving the Jewish Home party to found their own New Right party, they failed to pass the threshold required for seats in the Knesset in this year’s first election, a significant blow to the right. The Jewish Home party has been similarly fragmented, with its new leader, Rafi Peretz, flirting with messianic Kahanist elements who then abandoned the chance to run on a joint ticket. Further internal divisions are evident when examining Netanyahu’s relationship with his former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman who has refused to join a Netanyahu-led coalition given their disagreement over a plan to draft ultra-orthodox soldiers to the IDF. Lieberman went so far as to call Netanyahu’s Likud, “a populist ultra-orthodox party that sanctifies a cult of personality”.
Although still popular among the Likud’s traditional voter base, Netanyahu’s cult of personality has certainly taken a hit of late – primarily because of the Prime Minister’s looming pre-indictment hearing for corruption allegations, which he has unsuccessfully sought to push off. The US President Donald Trump’s Deal of the Century has proved tricky for Netanyahu. Throwing significant political weight behind the deal, Netanyahu may have done himself more harm than good, with the deal generating little fanfare and seemingly accomplishing nothing more than strengthening Netanyahu’s already solid relationship with the US President.  Even if he were to once again be given the task of forming a right-wing coalition government, it is doubtful if even the masterful Netanyahu would be capable of doing so under these conditions.
That is not to say that the left-wing has been strengthening either. All parties on the left of the political spectrum took a beating in the last election, with Kulanu and Labor losing more than half of their mandates and functionally becoming non-entities on the Israeli political scene. The recent reentry into politics of former PM Barak will only further fragment the left, leaving us to keep an eye on the centre-left parties and particularly Blue and White, which may well generate the largest gains from all of this political uncertainty.
