Unless Liz Truss falls out of favour among Conservative Party members because of an unexpected event, it looks increasingly likely that she will become the next Prime Minister.
If so, we can expect a wave of tax cuts very soon. Truss argues this will spur growth on its own. Sunak’s alternative is to ride out the storm and wrestle with inflation. In my view, neither approach offers a true long-term plan for higher levels of economic growth, which is sorely needed to alleviate the cost-of-living crisis and fend off the threat of recession.
Why should we be forced to choose between these two equally short-sighted and inadequate solutions to the massive problems we face? It’s more of the same old policies that we have had time and again rather than something genuinely new. In my new book, Why the West Is Failing, I propose a radical solution that will drive growth and put us in good stead to face the crises of today and tomorrow.
In the book, I outline how we must get the UK economy growing again at around 3 per cent. We have seen anaemic growth for years, being lucky to hit 2 per cent, while manufacturing powerhouses like China and Vietnam regularly reach 5 per cent. But how do we get the economy growing again? We can do this by reviving our manufacturing industry.
Manufacturing has more potential than any other industry to drive growth in our economy. That is because it is much easier to drive up productivity and GDP growth in manufacturing than it is in services. With relative ease, through investment in more efficient machines, for example, you can double the output of a manufacturing centre – something impossible in the services industry. Yet we continue to rely on services for growth.
In fact, the proportion of the UK economy made up by manufacturing has fallen from 30 per cent in 1970 to less than 10 per cent today. This is devastating. Given the massive potential manufacturing holds for growth, it is time we reversed this drastic decline.
The key to reviving manufacturing is to make it more profitable in the UK. And the best way to do that is to adopt a more competitive exchange rate. By bringing down the value of the pound, we will make our exports cheaper in world markets. As it stands, our exchange rate makes our manufactured goods grossly uncompetitive.
By some accounts, 25 per cent of all manufactured exports used to be British-made, but now this is as low as 2 per cent. We have a fantastic opportunity to retake a share of this global market. My book outlines a blueprint to do just that, boosting our manufacturing industry and bringing with it real economic growth.
We are perfectly positioned to be a leading manufacturer again, offering high-tech, modern products that the world needs. But our exchange rate is holding us back. Our service industries manage well with the current rate, but it is constricting our manufacturing sector. We must be willing to take a radical step, rebalancing our economy towards manufacturing-led growth. The only way to do this is by adopting a more competitive exchange rate. This is a pressing issue needing an urgent response.
How would we make the pound more competitive? By adopting the same approach China followed in the 1970s and 80s and Japan pursued more recently, such as making it more difficult for foreign companies to buy UK assets, like our companies and properties. Allowing this to happen inflates the value of our currency. It is also worth discussing whether it is time to update the mandate for the Bank of England, getting them to focus on growth rather than inflation.
The economy is looking worse by the day. We face a deepening cost-of-living crisis while inflation runs rampant. Massive costs such as climate change and social care are on the horizon. Unless we change lanes soon, we can’t hope to break through today’s crises, let alone face up to those of tomorrow. Only by driving up economic growth through manufacturing will we have the financial freedom to face these issues. Better still, growth will facilitate the ‘levelling-up’ agenda that is talked about so much, but to no end.
Sign up for our FREE Reaction Weekend Email
Every Saturday:
Read the week's best-read articles on politics, business and geopolitics
Receive offers and exclusive invites
Plus uplifting cultural commentary
The potential of areas from Sheffield to Hull is forgotten, allowing the South to dominate the economy. By boosting manufacturing, we will create high-productivity and high-wage jobs that can narrow the divide. We are falling behind. But this isn’t about flexing our muscles on the world stage. It is about the need to address regional inequalities, rebuild our crumbling public services, properly fund our military, and prepare for the destructive effects of climate change.
The only way to face these problems with any chance of success is by driving up economic growth. Yes, tax cuts will put a little more money in people’s pockets in the short-term. They may also encourage more investment in our country. But this is a half-baked, reactionary solution. Let’s remove ourselves from the endless cycle of repetitive economic fiddling and put into action a real solution for growth. We need a radical and ambitious solution. We need a manufacturing renaissance.
The author is the founder of The John Mills Institute for Prosperity. His new book, Why the West Is Failing, is published on 26 August.