No rapprochement with voters for Macron, just the sound of pots and pans

There has been much sound and fury in France over the last six months as the country’s once-powerful trade union movement, backed by the parliamentary Left, took to the streets to prevent passage of the government’s pension reform bill. But in spite of last-gasp sputterings from the unions and the promise of further uproar in the National Assembly, the reform has been written into the statute books since April and will take effect, in stages, starting in September. 

The result is a victory, of sorts, for Emmanuel Macron, but for the President, as much as for the unions, it leaves a bitter taste in the mouth. The unions bared their teeth but ended up looking gummy. Macron asserted his authority only to find that wherever he goes he is followed, even sometimes jostled, by angry members of the public beating pots and pans. 

There can be no doubt that France’s youngest head of state for more than a hundred years has suffered a serious loss of face. He would almost certainly not be re-elected if he were able to stand for a third term and, with four years of his second term still to go, is widely regarded as a lame duck President. 

At the same time, the unions and the Far Left have demonstrated only that, while they can fill the streets with protesters and reduce the Assembly to a shouting match, they cannot determine the course of events. Not only that, but millions of law-abiding voters were shocked by the violence from the so-called Black Blocs that accompanied the demonstrations. Tellingly, those opposed to the legislation were outlasted by Macron, who simply dug in his heels and, at the crucial moment, manipulated the system in his favour.   

If there is a winner, it is the French exchequer, which is now guaranteed an increased income that should enable pensioners to be paid in full at least until the next crisis, which will surely build between now and 2035. 

France, it should be noted, not only pays state pensions that are on average higher than elsewhere in the EU (though below Spain and – however implausibly – Greece) but, even after the present reform, will pay them to retirees who in other member states would have to carry on working for at least another two years. The pensionable age in Germany is set to reach 67 over the next five years, and, with the population in decline, there is talk of a further rise to 68. In Italy, it is already 67 and in the Netherlands 66, rising to 67 in 2024. 

Back in the unreal world, the unions in France have refused to admit defeat. On Tuesday, there were demonstrations in towns and cities across the country. The turnout, however, was the lowest of the campaign, suggesting that workers, by and large, have had enough of strikes and protests, all of which cost them money, and are resigned to their fate. 

Politically, there are still moves afoot. Today, there will be a debate in the Assembly, in the name of a group of parliamentary misfits including three Corsican nationalists, that aims to overturn, or abrogate, the reform bill on the basis of a simple majority vote. Though backed by the Left and likely to be supported by the Far Right, the move is almost certain to fail. 

The President of the Assembly, Yaël Braun-Pivet, a member of Macron’s refashioned Renaissance Party, has let it be known that she will invoke Article 40 of the Constitution in the event of any call for a vote. This states that private members’ bills are inadmissible if they would result in either a diminution of public revenue or an increase in public expenditure. 

Game, set and – one would suppose – match to Macron. But not a good look. He only secured passage of his reform bill by way of another article of the Constitution – 49.3 – that allowed him to evade a final vote in the Assembly. If he wishes to appear a democrat, resorting to procedure is not the ideal way forward. 

All in all, then, not a happy time for French governance. Aware of his reduced status, the President has vowed to come up with all sorts of remedies to heal the current breach of trust between himself and the voters and to relaunch his second term. On April 26, his prime minister, Elisabeth Borne, announced 100 days of apaisement, 43 days of which have already elapsed with little obvious sign of progress. 

The Hundred Days – not, one assumes, borrowed from Napoleon’s last-gasp campaign that ended at Waterloo – are resting on four pillars: employment, climate change, public service and law and order. Opponents were quick to point out that a much-vaunted immigration bill, intended to reduce the number of illegals entering France, was dropped, or at least postponed – an indication that the government could not face the societal divisions that might have attended its introduction.  

The only substantive reform presently on the legislative slipway is the all-encompassing Full Employment Bill, which would replace existing state bodies with something called France Travail that, if it worked, would centralise and coordinate the various players in the sector in order to move towards full employment. The existing main agency, Le Pôle Emploi, employs 45,000 civil servants nationwide and it is hard to see it altering significantly beyond the change of name. Cynics might point to the example of the élite École Nationale d’Administration – Macron’s alma mater – which on New Year’s Day 2022 was reborn as L’Institut National du Service Public while continuing to advance its former purpose – the propagation of a ruling class – from the same campus with largely the same staff. 

But who knows? Prime Minister Borne boasted in April that unemployment in France had dropped by three percentage points since the end of 2016, to a new low of 7.1 per cent, reflecting the creation over the period of 1.7 million jobs. If the trend continues, with economic growth and a fall in the jobless rate going hand-in-hand and with Covid-19 consigned to the history books, Macron – the eternal egotist – could perhaps picture himself recovering to win an imaginary third term as President. As it is, his party, if it survives him, will have to search hard for a suitable candidate to take on the task of beating the Far Right’s Marine Le Pen, who having lost twice before to Macron is busily rebranding herself as Mother of the Nation and could well find herself in pole position in 2027.  

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