Nurses’ strike: is the end in sight?

Could the stalemate finally be ending? The Royal College of Nursing is locked in “intensive talks” with health secretary Steve Barclay after halting its planned strike action.

After months of dragging his feet, Barclay has finally agreed to open negotiations over not just working conditions, but pay too. 

Pat Cullen, the RCN’s general secretary, sounds optimistic, and says she is “confident” of returning from the meeting with a “fair pay settlement” for nurses. 

The prospect of an end to nurse walkouts is welcome news. The RCN was set to dramatically escalate strike action next month, asking staff working in A&E, intensive care and cancer care to join the picket line for the first time. And an estimated 140,000 NHS appointments have already been cancelled this winter because of strike action. 

Why the change of tone from ministers now? 

As Richard Sloggett writes in Reaction, the main reason appears to be better than expected public finances. According to ONS figures released this week, the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has £30bn more wiggle room in his spring budget than he anticipated, largely thanks to higher-than-expected tax revenues and a drop in energy prices. 

We don’t know exactly what figures are being discussed in the meeting. The Royal College of Nursing had initially called for an inflation-busting 19% pay rise for nurses this financial year – far above the average of 4.75% awarded to them.

More recently, however, Cullen has said she is willing to “meet the government halfway”. This afternoon’s talks also come just after the government submitted its proposal to the NHS Pay Review Body of a 3.5% pay increase for nurses next year. Unions have warned this below inflation figure could worsen the ongoing pay dispute.  

While NHS Providers, which represents health managers, says the NHS would be “breathing a sigh of relief” to hear of the RCN’s meetings, not everyone has welcomed the news.

Health unions excluded from the talks, such as Unite and GMB, have accused the government of divide and rule tactics, labelling the meeting with Cullen a “back-room deal.” 

That said, a breakthrough with the RCN could pave the way for further NHS pay deals. In fact, according to the FT, the government may already be considering a more generous pay deal for workers across the public sector. In a private memo, seen by the newspaper today, the Treasury has indicated that public sector awards of up to 5 per cent for 2023-24 are being considered.

Either way, it is perhaps unsurprising that the government appears to be prioritising nurses. The difficulty attracting and retaining nursing staff is a huge threat to the NHS. 

According to Cullen, there are currently 50,000 vacancies and a record 40,000 nurses left the NHS workforce in the year to June 2022 – roughly one in nine nurses – with many citing burnout, poor working conditions and growing frustration over pay.

More worryingly, around two-thirds of those leaving were under 45. As Maggie Pagano wrote previously in Reaction, according to London Economics, international recruitment for nurses costs 2.4 times as much as a pay rise of 5% above inflation. 

Ministers would be wise to meet Cullen halfway. 

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