Tory manifesto was masterfully modest

In unveiling his party’s manifesto, Boris Johnson promised yesterday that a Conservative government would make the country Carbon neutral by 2050 and Corbyn neutral by 2020, or Christmas. It was a typically irreverent slogan of the kind the Prime Minister favours.

What was striking about the rest of the manifesto is that beyond the slogans it was, well, not particularly striking at all. Compared to the Labour document, unveiled last week by Jeremy Corbyn, the Conservative manifesto is remarkably sober both in its pledges and in its size. At a total of 59 pages, it is a much more succinct document than Labour’s sprawling 104 sides.

Johnson’s manifesto spending commitments are dwarfed by those of the other parties – in his document, he is pledging a further £2.9 billion of investment per year compared to an estimated £6.3 billion from the Liberal Democrats and £8.3 billion from Labour.

The Tory pledges included claims of 50,000 more nurses in England and the creation of 50 million more GP appointments over the next parliament. It also included well-tested proposals, which have already been released, such as the training of 20,000 more police officers, and raising the National Insurance threshold to £9,500 in 2020. This was accompanied by an ambition to raise this further to £12,500. There is also to be a National Skills fund worth £600m for five years, bringing a Conservative alternative to Labour and Liberal Democrat pledges in this area to the table.

Observers have described it in luke-warm terms. The BBC’s Norman Smith called it a “take-no-chances” manifesto. Chris Giles dissected the rather modest ambitions behind some of the new figures included in the Conservatives’ spending plans and concluded that some tax rises are on the way.

It all seemed underwhelming. For instance, the Tories have pledged a new fund, worth in total about £1 billion, for “flexible, high quality wraparound childcare”, a fund which would hypothetically provide a total of £1 per week – that’s £1 per week – for every primary school child in the country. This is indeed a contrast to Labour’s promise that there will be free childcare for every parent with children aged 2-4 across England.

However, after a week of pundits and critics accusing Labour of trying to do far too much, it is amusing that the Conservatives are now being criticised for producing a document that does too little. To say that the Conservatives are lacking ambition because of the low number of pages and pledges is to miss the point of this manifesto. The Conservatives are attempting to avoid “pledge inflation” – offering incredible pledges instead – and the danger of blowing up their campaign with only two weeks and a few days to run.

Manifestos have gone wrong for the Tories before. The 2010 document – “An invitation to Join the Government of Britain” – cobbled together by David Cameron’s campaign guru Steve Hilton alongside the cerebral Oliver Letwin was a sprawling document that lacked focus. This was one factor which critics say contributed to the Conservatives botching a campaign in which they hoped to win a majority. Clearly not enough people were willing to take the invitation, or quite understood what the invitation was.

Instead, Johnson and his strategists have calculated that they ought to be focusing upon spending plans which are ambitious, but deliverable. They have sought to cement a double-digit poll lead by combining economic dynamism with modest blue collar spending promises. If a manifesto inflates its economic and social promises too much, then it is in danger of losing not only credibility but also its sharpness and focus.

As the Prime Minister’s brother, Jo Johnson, pointed out in The Times at the weekend, Margaret Thatcher’s 1979 majority of 43 seats was won making only 124 specific policy commitments in her first manifesto. In 2010, by contrast, David Cameron’s programme included a total of 648 pledges.

Where Labour’s manifesto risks becoming the (class) War and Peace of the election campaign, the Tories have aimed to make their booklet the Great Gatsby – compact, concise, clear, with a rakish central character. This clarity is reflected in its title, a slogan which CCHQ has tested to destruction in focus groups: “Get Brexit Done, Unleash Britain’s Potential.”

If there is one principle which tests well nationally, across those who voted Leave and Remain in 2016, it is that it is high time that the referendum result was honoured, and Britain moves on. Their manifesto plays directly into this sentiment.

The Tories do not need to distract from areas where they are already have a clear lead. When it comes to leaving the European Union, the Conservatives have a big picture, dramatic policy proposal which distinguishes them from all of the major parties. This – plus their new leader – is their big gambit, and their great gamble in this election.

Johnson’s team knows that, if they win a majority and get Brexit done, crafting Britain’s future relationship with the EU will still require much of the legislative energy of the next parliament over the year of 2020, at the very least. It is wise to trim back on the fiscal drama in order not to crowd out the constitutional and political work that must still unfold, even if the Withdrawal Agreement enjoys the backing of the new House of Commons. This is an election with the Brexit question at its heart.

All in all, this Tory manifesto looks masterfully modest, and justifiably restrained. It is a document in which the Tories set out to reinforce the contrast between Labour as the party of reckless socialist idealism and the Tories as the party of Brexit and managerial realism.