A personal feud looks likely to disrupt Ethiopia’s election

Over recent months, the mutual enmity of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the Nobel Peace Prize-winning reformer and his former ally, Jawar Mohammed, a media mogul who helped bring Abiy to power, has fuelled violence in a tinderbox country rife with ethnic tensions.

In the latest twist this week, Jawar, an Ethiopian-born US citizen, announced that he will give up his US passport, which would allow him to run against Abiy in what is set to be a divisive and bitterly fought general election in May.

Ethiopia is Africa’s second most populous state, home to 105 million people belonging to 80 distinct ethnic groups. The country is partitioned into nine regions which map onto its major ethnicities. A new constitution enacted in 1995 changed Ethiopia from a centrally unified republic to a multinational federation whose constituent regions were granted extensive powers of self-determination.

But in recent years, encroachment of central government policy and ideology has undermined the principle of regional self-rule. This erosion of autonomy, along with state killings of citizens, mass arrests and land seizures fuelled anti-government fury. Mass protests began in 2016 which eventually toppled the old leadership. Abiy came to power in 2018 with a promise to heal the nation.

Until recently he was chairman of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), the quarrelling coalition of four ethnically-partisan parties that monopolised every tier of the country’s political machinery since the overthrow of the Derg military regime in 1991. In November, in a bold move designed to promote national harmony and start afresh, Abiy reformed the EPRDF into a single party. Three of the four coalition leaders agreed although the historically dominant party, the Tigrayan Peoples’ Liberation Front (TPLF), boycotted the vote.

Abiy will now stand at the election as head of the new Prosperity Party (PP), pitched as a pan-Ethiopian, centrist and economically liberal version of its predecessor. This rebranding feeds into Abiy’s core message of reconciliation and national unity. He has released political prisoners, apologised for the abuses of past administrations and appointed a large number of former dissidents to senior government posts.

The international community has praised Abiy for the bold economic and political reforms he has enacted in one of Africa’s most repressive states. He has overseen the partial privatisation of huge state-owned companies, fired ministers previously considered untouchable, lifted bans on websites and ended the state of emergency imposed in 2016.

Abiy was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in October for his efforts towards resolving the long-running border conflict with neighbouring Eritrea which seceded from Ethiopia in 1993. The peace deal brought an end to a 20-year military stalemate in which tens of thousands of people died. But the brokered peace is patchy and hostilities remain. The initial surge in cross-border trade has ceased and the border is closed once again. Negotiations about the physical demarcation of the new border have yet to begin.

Heightened ethnic tensions also pose a significant threat to his election bid. In 2018, ethnic conflict forced nearly three million Ethiopians to flee their homes. Abiy has been criticised for failing to deal with the humanitarian crisis in the south of the country that the violence has produced.

These problems have provided an opportunity for Jawar to challenge his one-time ally. Both men are Oromo, an ethnic group hailing from Oromia, the country’s geographically largest region and home to a third of its population. The 33-year-old Jawar, a high-profile activist, is a popular figure in the region. He owns Oromo Media Network, an influential multimedia organisation with a TV station and 1.7 million Facebook followers.

Jawar’s shrewd use of social media galvanised a movement of young men whose anti-government protests laid the foundations for Abiy’s ascent to power. But Jawar has since accused Abiy and his administration of centralising power and sliding back into authoritarianism, undermining the rights of the very demonstrators – particularly the Oromo – who helped him become prime minister in the first place.

In October, Abiy made a thinly-veiled attack on Jawar, promising that the government would “take measures” against media owners threatening “the peace and existence of Ethiopia”. Later that day, Jawar accused Abiy and the security forces of plotting to assassinate him. The claim sparked anti-government demonstrations in which at least 80 people were killed.

In December, Jawar joined the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) opposition party with a view to contesting this year’s election. His dual nationality barred him from participating in politics under Ethiopian law. But renouncing his US citizenship should clear the way for him to stand.

Jawar is an opponent Abiy will fear. He is a firebrand whose controversial statements ensure continued publicity – he recently said that if Trump had operated in Africa “he could have been Idi Amin.” His federalist message is clear: greater autonomy and self-determination for Oromia. In a country in which ethnic strife is erupting, sub-state nationalism is enticing. And his youthful appeal is a big deal; nearly two-thirds of Ethiopia’s population is under the age of 25.

The prospect of a free, fair and peaceful poll in May is highly doubtful. The 2010 and 2015 elections were marred by harassment and intimidation. In 2005, violence broke out across the country when the opposition denounced the election as rigged. Nearly 200 demonstrators were killed. And despite the irregularities, the 2005 election is still considered the fairest and most competitive the country has held since the end of civil war in 1991.

Abiy will hope that his bold reforms will persuade disenchanted voters, who have suffered decades of repression at the hands on the ruling coalition, to back him over Jawar. Although, if Ethiopia’s history of rigged elections continues, he might not need to.