Ancient prophesy says totally stuffed Tories must throw May on the fire

Classical myth has it that the Sibyl offered nine books of prophecies to Tarquin the Proud, the last King of Rome.

Tarquin thought her asking price too exorbitant, and despite the invaluable wisdom contained in the books, tried to bargain with her. She threw three of the books on the fire, and offered him the remaining six for exactly the same price. Obviously, he refused – why pay for six the same amount that he’d just refused for nine?

The Sibyl burned another three and repeated her offer. Conscious that he’d just thrown away some of the most valuable books in existence, and that this was his last chance to get even a fraction of what he wanted, Tarquin relented. He swallowed his pride and bought the last three books for the original price.

This expert lesson in sunk cost theory was attempted by Theresa May earlier this week. For five months she has tried to garner support for her withdrawal bill for the sake of delivering Brexit, but the cost of the compromise – for both Tory Brexiteers and hardline Remainers – was considered too high.

Undeterred, May took a leaf out of the Sibyl’s book, and made the offer worse. On Tuesday, she announced what she called a new “serious offer” to MPs, and implored them to vote for it. It was certainly serious, in that it managed to unite parliament against her in record time.

For Brexiteers, the chance of a second referendum was a deal-breaker. For Remainers, the promise of another vote was too hollow and vague for them to support a version of Brexit that is still far harder than they would like. May promptly lost 20 Conservatives who had voted for her deal the last time around, gaining none.

Why did May fail where the Sibyl succeeded? First, because unlike the books of wisdom, there is very little of value in her deal at all, short of the lowest bar of all in that it would finally get Britain out of the EU.

But second, because the other books have not been burned. A no-deal Brexit and another referendum with Remain on the ballot paper both look more likely than they have at any point of the last three years. Tarquin was forced to comprehend the very real possibility of walking away with nothing at all. Both of the Brexit warring factions think that they now have a chance of getting their books back.

Of course, the opposite logic now consumes the Tory party when it comes to ditching May. Forcing her out after her dismal performance in the 2017 General Election would, in retrospect, have been the best move. And while the ERG holds some responsibility for calling a vote of no confidence in her last December without being certain they would win, hence giving her another year of protected time as leader, many of the Conservative MPs who voted with her then are now wishing they hadn’t thrown away their shot.

The landscape for changing leader now, with the party utterly split and the Brexit clock still ticking now, is worse now than it’s ever been. Compromise is off the table, and a new insurgent party has emerged to push the Tories into spaces most MPs really do not want to inhabit.

Nonetheless, it is finally dawning on the party that sunk costs cannot be allowed to count. The only question that matters is whether the Conservatives (and the country, but politicians stopped worrying about that months ago) would be better off without May now.

The mood music in Westminster has been wrong before, but all the auguries indicate that they are finally coming to that conclusion. The upcoming political fall-out will be a hefty price to pay for three books when two years ago they could have nine, but it’s that or nothing. And eventually, even Tarquin came around.