Are we heading for a summer of travel chaos?

With impending rail strikes, mass flight cancellations and rapidly increasing fuel prices combining to create a perfect storm, it’s likely that travel will be severely disrupted this summer.

Here’s what you need to know.

How will rail strikes affect travel?

The National Union of Rail, Maritime and Transport Workers (RMT) has called three strikes to take place on 21 June, 23 June and 25 June.

Due to the effects of the pandemic, the government has told rail companies to cut costs by ten per cent, leading to workers fearing for their pay and job security. over 40,000 staff are set to participate in the rail strikes, in what could be the biggest since privatisation in the 1990s.

These strikes, which come after a London Underground walk-out on 6 June, will each last for 24 hours, and will affect Network Rail, as well as 13 train companies in England: Chiltern, Cross Country, Greater Anglia, LNER, East Midlands, c2c, Great Western, Northern, South Eastern, South Western, TransPennine, Avanti West Coast and West Midlands.

The RMT has also announced that another 24-hour Tube strike will take place on 21 June.

While GTR, which runs Thameslink services, has voted not to strike, it is likely that these services will still be heavily disrupted.

In spite of the strikes, some trains will continue to run, but these services are expected to be very limited, and only run on mainlines, with rural stations likely to be closed.

Those who have already paid for tickets, such as season ticket holders, will receive refunds if the services do not run.

Why are flights being cancelled?

Thousands of flights are being cancelled across the UK, mainly due to staff shortages. Airlines are obligated to fill 70 per cent of their airport slots, or they could lose them. Most have chosen to offer these flights despite not having the staff to operate them.

Since the start of the pandemic, airlines cut around 30,000 jobs, while airports were forced to cut many staff and aviation support workers.

On a global scale, the pandemic has cost the industry an estimated £145bn, as well as four million jobs.

Despite many of these workers having been re-hired since, lengthy security checks mean that some can only carry out limited roles for the time being. As such, airlines are struggling, with a significant uptick in travel demand after restrictions for entering the UK were lifted on 18 March.

Flight bookings had reached 93 per cent of 2019 levels for June, July and August, according to travel consultancy ForwardKeys.

Michael O’Leary, CEO of Ryanair, said that Brexit has made it more difficult for airlines to bring in European workers.

British Airways has planned to cut 16,000 flights between March and October (10 per cent fewer flights), as part of a reduced schedule, in the hopes of avoiding short notice cancellations.

What’s happening to fuel prices?

In recent days, petrol costs have risen sharply, reaching an average of 182.31 pence per litre. Diesel has risen to 188.05 pence per litre.

These price rises are the result of an increase in the cost of crude oil, which is used to make petrol and diesel. As the world has started to recover from the Covid pandemic, suppliers have struggled to match demand for fuel.

Oil prices had been rising since the end of 2020, but when Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February, crude oil costs shot up, peaking at $130 per barrel – in comparison with less than $20 per barrel in March 2020.

As Western sanctions began to take effect, supplies have started to be squeezed, as less oil from Russia – a major producer – has made its way into the market.

The UK has committed to phasing out Russian oil by the end of 2022, with EU leaders planning to shut off most Russian oil imports by the end of the year.

What does this mean for summer travel?

For those travelling in June, they should expect heavy disruption on rail services during the strike periods.

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps has suggested laws to make sure that “minimum service levels” are maintained, but questions have been raised over how effective this might be. In any case, the legislation will not be in place to prevent this month’s strikes.

Airlines have warned that the disruption to fights is unlikely to improve for some time. Yet companies will be trying to continue recruiting, training and passing employees through security checks in the run-up to summer.

Airlines will also be hoping that travel will be spread out across the summer, rather than take place in a single week, as happened in the recent school half-term.

Fuel prices are not expected to decrease any time soon, with the RAC having warned that petrol could soon cost more than £2 per litre.

VAT and fuel duty constitute about half of the cost of fuel to consumers, so it is possible that the government will cut these taxes, as Boris Johnson seeks to reaffirm his leadership following last week’s no-confidence vote.