Assassination of Hamas leader disrupts drive to de-escalate

Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, and Defence Secretary, John Healey, are in Qatar today during a highly fraught moment for the Middle East, as the overnight killing of Hamas’s top political leader in Iran threatens to enflame the entire region, writes Caitlin Allen. 

While few details have emerged of their talks with Qatar’s top diplomats, the stated mission of Lammy and Healey’s trip to the gulf – to press for de-escalation in the Middle East – appears more out-of-reach than ever. 

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, vowed this morning to inflict “harsh punishment” on Israel to avenge the death of Ismail Haniyeh, widely considered Hamas’s overall leader, who was killed in a pre-dawn airstrike in Tehran, just hours after he had attended the swearing-in ceremony of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian.

While Israel hasn’t claimed responsibility for the killing, it often doesn’t for Mossad-led assassinations. And Haniyeh has long been on its list of targets. A Hamas group statement has been quick to lay the blame at Israel’s feet too, labelling the attack “a treacherous Zionist raid”.

Haniyeh was one of the VIP attendees of Pezeshkian’s inauguration – “a dear guest in our home”, in the words of Khamenei. That he has been killed while under the country’s protection is a humiliation for Tehran, increasing chances of a strong retaliation. 

The attack in Tehran came only hours after Israel killed a senior figure from another one of Iran’s – even more cherished – proxy groups.

Israel has claimed responsibility for a strike on a building in southern Beirut yesterday, which killed Fouad Shukr, a key advisor on military affairs to Hezbollah chief, Hassan Nasrallah.

The IDF claims that Shukr was the man responsible for a deadly attack on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend. Hezbollah has denied any involvement.

While Tehran has vowed to inflict punishment on Israel, it’s uncertain in what form this revenge might take. 

There is the possibility of a direct attack. After all, the last time Iran vowed revenge on Israel in retaliation for an attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, it launched a barrage of over 300 missiles and drones towards Tel Aviv.

On the other hand, this “revenge” may instead be conducted via ramped-up aggression from Iran’s many proxy groups – not only Hamas and Hezbollah, but also Shia militant groups in Syria and Iraq, as well as the Houthis in Yemen.

Events of the last 24 hours certainly do not bode well for existing fears that low intensity fighting between Hezbollah and Israel is heading towards all-out war. Lammy has already urged British nationals to leave Lebanon.

The primary aim of Lammy and Healey’s planned trip to Qatar was to push for a ceasefire in Gaza. But the killing of Haniyeh has rather put paid to any progress on that front. 

Haniyeh, who has been residing in the Qatari capital of Doha since 2019, was a critical interlocutor in the ceasefire negotiations being brokered by Qatar, the US and Egypt.

“How can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?” fumed the Prime Minister of Qatar today. 

 These truce talks will inevitably be on hold for now. 

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