AUKUS: a big boost to Britain in the Asia Pacific

The new US-UK-Australia alliance announced by Joe Biden, Boris Johnson and Scott Morrison overnight – under the acronym AUKUS – is a major development in the strategy of all three countries – more than may appear at first sight. It is full of hidden nuances and subtleties, not yet made public, but is a huge boost for the Royal Navy, the submarine service, and British submarine technology.

The most obvious novelty is that Australia is to build nuclear-powered attack submarines for the first time. They will be SSN hunter-killer vessels, for intelligence gathering as well as deterrence across the wider Pacific region. The boats are likely to be based on the current Virginia class now entering service with the US Navy or the Royal Navy’s Astute class – and most likely to be an amalgam and update on both.

AUKUS is not focused solely on submarines – though they are the main attraction in its first phase. It is to embrace cooperation in cyber capabilities and security, the applications of Artificial Intelligence and Quantum technology.

In Australia and the US, the somewhat thin media commentary has focused primarily on the Australia-US tie in the deal, one even saying Biden and Morrison were merely “throwing a bone” to keep Boris Johnson onside. This seems pretty wide of the mark.

For Britain there appear to be huge advantages. It deepens ties with Australia and especially with the Australian Navy – which has just bought the design of the Bae Systems Type 26 as its next anti-submarine frigate. This may prove a very important part of the AUKUS jigsaw – as the frigates will coordinate with the new submarines in detecting potentially hostile submarines, especially from China and Russia. For the UK the submarine will boost investment, manpower and training, and capacity, including access to Australian bases.

For Canberra it has meant the termination of a troubled deal with France signed in 2016 for up to 12 diesel-electric submarines for a price of roughly A$90bn– or £58bn at today’s rates. The write-off and penalty fees must be eye-watering. The French, naturally, are furious. A joint statement from foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and defence minister Florence Parly slammed Australia for acting “contrary to the spirit of the cooperation between the two countries.” They accused the US of “excluding a European ally from a structuring partnership with Australia, at a time when we are facing unprecedented challenges in the Indo-Pacific region.”

It is bad news for the attempt by France’s Naval Group to sell a new class of diesel–electric submarine across the world to countries including India and the Netherlands. France had seen itself as leading the naval component of the new combined partnership, the EU Defence Entity. The AUKUS deal seems to stress that the French and Europeans are behind the curve in the need for effective submarine surveillance and operations in the wider Pacific. The nuclear SSNs have greater reach, and are more stealthy than their more conventionally powered cousins.

There is urgency behind the Biden-Johnson-Morrison announcement. The unspoken concern is the sudden twist of aggressive isolationism emanating from China. China is completing a huge new complex for its own nuclear submarine fleet. Over the past year aggressive interference with fishing fleets has escalated across the Pacific, as have the threats and warnings about the South China Sea and access to the Taiwan Strait.

President Xi Jinping has started a new phase of cold shouldering international gatherings and events. He has not yet formally accepted the invitation to attend next month’s G-20 summit, according to the Italian hosts. Combined with a very obvious increase in surface and submarine naval activity, the diplomatic radio silence has raised fears that Beijing may be about to make a feint or a real attack on Taiwan. The AUKUS announcement puts down a marker that the new alliance’s long term strategy is to ensure China does not establish naval dominance through the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

For Britain and America the announcement signals further cooperation on submarine and naval technology. The two are closely intertwined anyway. Both are building new ballistic missile attack boats – the first two of the Dreadnought class are already laid down in Barrow, and America is developing the new Columbia class to replace the Ohios. The British are significantly ahead, which is a disadvantage as much as an advantage. The programmes and the new missile launch systems are colossally expensive.

All three AUKUS allies insist the new alliance doesn’t breach the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. The new Australian flotilla will not deploy nuclear weapons. Even so, Jacinda Ardern has announced that they will not be allowed anywhere near New Zealand which bans any nuclear-power shipping from its waters.

Britain will get more work and investment – far more than the US and Australian media seem to realise. The Australians may just buy a version of the Astute class submarine – which has had a chequered history, but is acknowledged to be best in the world class of hunter-killers, along with the American Virginias. The story so far has been stop-start with cost overruns and regular reappraisals. The Navy has ordered seven – they actually need eight as a practical minimum, which they may well now get through the Australia deal. The constant upgrading in production means that the fourth boat, HMS Audacious, is almost a new class. Each boat has to be designed individually and specifically, so it is like designing a bespoke suit of clothes.

The Astutes are successors to the highly rated Trafalgar class submarines, and are driven by the Rolls Royce PWR2 reactor – which is likely to form the basis of the propulsion system of the new Australian submarines. The Virginias are successors to the Los Angeles class of patrol submarine – the villain of the piece in the BBC’s hugely enjoyable hokum-on-the-high-seas drama ‘Vigil’ as it downed an innocent Irish trawler. The Virginias are slightly bigger than the Astutes, and like them will serve for another 25 years at least. Both can stay at sea for very long periods – until only the food for the crew runs out. But the Astutes are considerably faster – and they require a crew of around 90 to the 120 or 130 of the Virginias. They are significantly cheaper to build.

British naval teams as well as engineers from Bae S submarines at Barrow and Rolls Royce at Derby will now be on regular assignment to Australia. I suspect, however, Australian personnel will be drafted in to the teams building the last two Astute submarines, Agamemnon and Agincourt, at Barrow. I suspect, too, that quite a large part of the first Australian sub will be built either in the US or UK. Moreover, I understand the UK is likely to get bonus work, in keeping the six Collins class submarines going in the Australian fleet until the new class is commissioned.

It is sure to mean that the Navy’s present SSN hunters and SSBN Vanguard ballistic will be making more visits and restocking stop-offs at Australian ports. The Royal Australian Navy’s Submarine HQ HMAS Stirling in Rockingham , Western Australia, will be a new hub.

There must now be a possibility that Australia could provide an alternate base to Faslane in Scotland for the UK’s submarines. Nicola Sturgeon has threatened to kick the nuclear boats altogether from Scotland. There has been some debate as to whether the submarines – up to 12 of them could fit into Devonport as an alternative. But what if part of the flotilla could be given routine maintenance and overhaul in Australia, with some supplementary work at Milford Haven? That seems entirely feasible, and not that expensive.

Contrary to some high powered guesswork by the Financial Times, I doubt if the UK nuclear sub fleet and the flotillas of AUKUS will be bunkering in French ports.