Australia heads to the polls as it’s boxed in by Beijing

Foreign policy? Front and centre in an Australian election? Strewth! (Other Oz clichés are available). It was made so by Prime Minister Scott Morrison of the (right of centre) Liberal Party which, polls suggest, will struggle to retain power after this weekend’s voting. It’s turned out to be a questionable move given that, surprise surprise, voters are more concerned about housing, health and climate change. Oh, and the economy, stupid.

The opposition (left of centre) Labor party, led by Anthony Albanese, focussed more on those issues and is favourite to win. However, the foreign policy issue, concerning the Solomon Islands and China, is important and part of the geopolitical map in the Indo-Pacific region.

Last month the Prime Minister of the Solomon Islands, Manasseh Sogavare, signed an agreement with China which opens the door for the Chinese navy to dock at ports in the Islands. Beijing can also deploy “the forces of China” to protect Chinese people and projects. That set alarm bells ringing across the Pacific. It’s unclear if the pact will allow the building of a Chinese naval base, but if it did Australian officials say this would change Canberra’s military posture. Morrison said a base in the Solomon Islands would be a “red line”. Other countries have signalled concern including New Zealand and the Federated States of Micronesia.

The Solomon Islands are part of what Australia and the US view as a defence shield stretching from Papua New Guinea to Vanuatu and Fiji. It partially curves around the top of the eastern coast which is home to a majority of the Australian population. Most of Australia’s exports to the US and Japan pass through the Pacific Islands and it gets its oil supplies via Japan which refines crude and ships it onwards.

Canberra fears a future in which Chinese bases, on islands deep out in the Pacific, could cut trade routes and prevent coordination with allies on naval defence. It has watched as Beijing has successfully persuaded many small states in the Pacific to switch economic and diplomatic ties from Taiwan to China.

The Solomon Islands dropped Taiwan in 2019 after China offered more than $500m in financial aid, a move which triggered violent anti-government unrest which killed four people. Last year another wave of violence swept the main island, Guadalcanal, and there were attacks on Chinese people and the looting of shops in the Chinatown district in the capital, Honiara. Prime Minister Sogavare asked neighbouring governments for help and security forces from Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, and Fiji flew in to quell the violence. However, if there is another outbreak, it might be the Chinese military flying in to restore order.  

Given enormous Chinese investment throughout the South Pacific it’s natural for Beijing to be manoeuvring to protect its interests. It sees the Pacific Island region as part of its “Air Silk Road” – connecting China with Latin America, and after years of diplomatic activity only four island countries maintain formal ties with Taiwan: Nauru, the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Palau.  

To counter China moving down from the First Island Chain and dominating the Pacific, Australia joined the loose naval agreement known as the “Quad” with India, Japan, and the US, and then signed the AUKUS deal with the UK and US. Deals such as the one with the Solomon Islands are Beijing’s pushback.

A month ago, Scott Morrison thought promoting his hawkish stance against China would be a vote winner, but the opposition Labor party has argued that Beijing’s deal with the Solomon Islands happened on his watch and is a failure of national security. It described a claim by Defence Minister Peter Dutton that China wanted the Liberals to lose as a “conspiracy theory”. Matching government policy for the Pacific was relatively easy – the Quad and AUKUS have cross-party support and Labor unveiled a plan to boost soft power and diplomacy in the Pacific and help neighbours with climate change issues.

Foreign policy has cut through but with inflation rising, and climate change at home having a devastating effect, the election will probably not be decided on what is happening abroad. Opinion polls have consistently put the Labor party ahead, but the gap narrowed over the past two weeks. A Resolve poll, the last before the vote, gave Labor a 51-49 lead.

Whoever wins will still have to manage the increasingly sour relationship with China over a range of issues. Last week Australian media quoted diplomatic sources as saying Beijing had indicated it sees the election as a “good opportunity” to ease tensions. However, the differences between them are deep and possibly deepening. China has a “list of grievances” it issued in 2020 which Canberra says it will not compromise on. Australia is likely to continue to speak out about human rights abuses in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, the expansion of Chinese influence in the Pacific and on the continuing trade disputes it has with China, most of which followed its calling for an international inquiry into the origins of Covid-19.

Government ministers from both sides have not met or even called each other for almost two years. A newly elected government, of whichever flavour, is a chance to try and mend some fences, even if the effort would be in hope not expectation.