Bangkok protests: Thai monarchy caught between demonstrators and government

The Thai government lifted an emergency decree banning political protests last week, but instead of satisfying the country’s demonstrators, it managed only to further inflame them. The hastily withdrawn bill was introduced last week following months of protests, mainly by students, in Bangkok.

The student protestors lack obvious leaders. However, they are broadly united in their criticism of the constitution introduced by the military junta which ruled the country from 2014-2019, and allowed the junta’s leader Prayut Chan-o-cha stay on as prime minister despite his failure to win a majority in the 2019 election.

What the political outcome from the recent waves of protests and repression in the country will be is still unclear. Experts do not seem to expect much change in the next few weeks and months. One suggested to me that, while the protestors’ copying of tactics from Hong Kong, with leaderlessness and fluid organisation designed to evade the police, provided some advantages, it also replicates some of  downsides of such an approach. Chiefly, it makes it difficult for a coherent strategy to emerge.

Those on the ground also note that this lack of centralised or coherent organisation means the protests are, for the moment, smaller than many of Thailand’s previous mass movements.

Yet, in a dramatic turn of events, the protestors are also defined by their willingness to voice criticisms of the monarchy – an institution revered by many Thais and protected by ferocious lèse-majesté laws. Indeed, the now-repealed ban on protests was introduced following an incident where the wife of King Maha Vajiralongkorn (regnal name Rama X), Queen Suthida, was jeered at by protesters.

The current protests can be seen as a result of growing discontent with both the current government and the monarchy. For the students on the streets of Thailand pushing back against the monarchy is central to their broader push back against the current conservative and authoritarian status quo.

This creates problems for the protestors. It is hard to overstate the centrality of the conservative monarchy to modern Thailand. In the various coups that have punctuated Thai politics since the Second World War, the nation’s conservative military has invariably claimed to be acting in defence of the monarchy. Lèse-majesté laws, breach of which could carry fifteen year jail sentences, have often been broadly interpreted as a justification for clamping down on dissent.

But the late King Bhumibol Adulyadej (Rama IX) also enjoyed enormous respect during his reign from 1946-2016. Many Thais believe the current royal dynasty played a key role in ensuring that Thailand remained a rarity among non-European nations in avoiding colonisation.

King Bhumibol also paired this with a popular touch, often touring the country to promote agricultural improvement. While coups were launched in his name, Bhumibol would often intervene to mediate between conflicting groups, eventually helping the transition to democracy in 1992.

Ascending to the throne in 2016 Bhumibol’s son, King Maha Vajiralongkorn (Rama X), has seemed determined to play an even more active role. In 2018 he also made the dramatic move of transferring all assets held by the Crown Property bureau – estimated to be worth £40 billion, including big stakes in key Thai companies – to his own personal wealth. In 2019 he took the unprecedented step of urging Thai citizens to vote for “good people”, read as a coded endorsement of the junta’s political organisation – the Palang Pracharath Party. The subsequent cabinet, dominated by this party, proceeded to swear loyalty to him but not to the constitution.

Vajiralongkorn lacks his father’s popularity. His life has been marked by eccentric behaviour and brushes with scandal. He has married and divorced multiple times and is currently on his fourth wife. The elevation of a miniature poodle to military rank, Air Chief Marshal Fufu was a particularly bizarre touch. The fact that the prince has also lived most of his life in Germany (and continued to spend much of his time there even after his ascension to the throne) has also failed to endear him to many.

The close alliance between the army and the crown threatens to drag the monarchy into controversy and crisis. The conservative slanted constitution and forced dissolution of the progressive new Future Forward Party, which did well in its first elections in 2019, has also incentivised more radical tactics among those opposed to the status quo. Still, for the vast majority, the chief object of the protests seems to be reform of institutions, with the more radical – and potentially more violent – republican elements remaining on the fringes.

So, what happens now?

So far, the protests have been fairly peaceful by Thai standards. The police have used batons and water cannon but this is a far cry from the 2010 protests, when guns and grenades were used by police and protestors alike, leaving 86 dead and 2,100 wounded. The repeal of the emergency decree and a planned emergency session in next week’s parliament look somewhat promising in terms of avoiding violence.

Royalist groups, who still command a great deal of support whatever the current king’s personal defects, have also started to mobilise. Rival protests might clash in a destructive repeat of the Red Shirt vs Yellow Shirt street battles which lasted for years following the 2006 coup. It also worth remembering that it was disrespect for the king that prompted the bloody military crackdown on massive student protests in 1976.

It is a dangerous situation. The risk of escalation remains.