Biden heading to Europe – what can he achieve?

Joe Biden is setting off for Europe today in a bid to prevent Russia’s attack on Ukraine from spiralling into an even greater catastrophe.

During the four days of high-stakes talks, Biden will visit both Brussels and Poland, where he will coordinate with NATO allies on an even tougher stance on Russia and new aid for Ukraine. The President is also preparing to make new announcements about how to help European countries wean themselves off Russian energy. 

US officials have warned that Biden will announce new sanctions in Brussels tomorrow, coordinated with the EU and members of the G7 alliance, on over 300 members of Russian parliament, the Duma. 

Hours before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, these members of Russia’s Duma passed a direct appeal to President Putin to recognise the Russian-controlled separatist states of Donetsk and Luhansk. This month, the Duma passed another law authorising a 15-year prison sentence for Russians peddling “false news” about Ukraine. 

Also on the agenda is whether or not Russia should be expelled from the G20 group of the world’s largest economies. Jake Sullivan, the White House National Security Advisor, has already hinted that the US will push for this position: “On the question of the G20, I will just say this: We believe that it cannot be business as usual for Russia in international institutions and in the international community.”

Aside from punishing new measures for Moscow, the discussions will focus on ways that NATO allies can support Ukraine and remain as a united front. 

On Friday, Biden will meet Polish President Andrzej Duda in Warsaw to discuss ways his administration can help Poland cope with the influx of more than two million Ukrainian refugees. 

Biden is expected to reiterate his support for Article 5 of NATO’s charter, which commits the alliance to collective defence if any one member comes under attack. Yet after Washington swiftly vetoed Poland’s recent attempt to send fighter jets to Kyiv, it’s likely that Biden will be keen to reiterate the perils of imposing a no-fly zone over Ukraine. 

That being said, other ways to ramp up military assistance to Ukraine will be an urgent talking point. Ukraine’s army urgently needs its weapon stocks replenishing, according to Dmytro Kuleba, the country’s foreign minister, who warns that the military has just two weeks before it runs out of anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles. President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that Ukraine is getting through a week’s worth of weapon supplies in just 20 hours. 

Biden is arriving in Europe as Putin’s invasion appears to have stalled, almost a month into the war. But it also comes amid what Washington describes as a growing and “very real threat” that Russia could resort to using chemical weapons in the face of fierce Ukrainian resistance. 

NATO’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has said today that an escalation to a chemical attack would be met with “far-reaching consequences”. But discussion between Biden and other NATO leaders on what exactly these consequences would look like could be the stickiest talking point of all.