Biden set to slash F-35 fighter jet order leaving UK to pick up the tab
General Charles Q Brown, head of the US Air Force, has called into question the future of America’s most expensive combat aircraft project, the F-35 – which Britain is buying for the Navy and RAF.
General Brown has ordered a report, to be delivered in a month, for the types of aircraft the USAF will need for the next ten years. In particular, he is looking for a new strike aircraft, designed from “a clean sheet”. It is to replace the F-16 Flying Falcon, which has been in service with US forces for 28 years. The General’s comments regarding the future of the F-35 were first reported this week in two US specialist flight magazines, Air Force Magazine and Breaking Defence.
This was why the F-35 – manufactured by Lockheed Martin – was originally commissioned. It was to replace the F-16, but with systems and capabilities for the age of cyber warfare. It was also to be a stealth plane. The British were to be a major partner, with 14 per cent of the work share. The UK initially announced the intention to buy 138 of the planes, now costing $80 million each – though most estimates put each plane at nearer $120 million.
The programme has suffered delays, cost overruns, and setbacks on technology such as the stealth protection. It is also very expensive in money and human hours to maintain.
With the US now expected to cut its order for F-35 by at least 200, the UK government faces a sharp escalation in costs for its order. It will impact the calculations of the Integrated Review on Strategy, due to out on 7 March, and the subsequent Defence White Paper on defence expenditure. The F-35B is needed for the Royal Navy’s new aircraft carriers, as well as the RAF.
“It really throws a spanner in the works,” said a former Royal navy admiral, now an executive with an international defence company. “They were desperate to get the sums to work for the defence reviews next month. The US announcement is a real curve ball – it means the cost of the F-35 now escalates. It means they will have to cap the numbers. The Navy had expected to get about 60. I doubt if they can afford even that number.”
Francis Tusa, the independent analyst and publisher of Defence Review, thinks the announcement from General Brown is a real game changer. Tusa has published on Twitter “35 Reasons why F-35 is bad for the British.” He said that in the end the UK has considerably less than 14 per cent of the work share. Most of the partner air forces in the project including, Canada, Norway and Italy have been critical of the project, its shortfalls and expense, and cut back on order numbers.
General Brown said the US Air Force would have F-35s, but in fewer numbers. The US Marines are buying the same F-35 variant as the British, the Short Take Off and Vertical Landing (STOVL) or ‘jump jet’ model. But they too have expressed dissatisfaction at performance and the high cost of maintenance – and are cutting back on numbers.
General Brown has said his plan for the Air Force will “mean tough choices.” He admitted during his presentation that the F-35 is having problems with engine wear, which is pushing up the already high maintenance costs.
For the UK, the US Air Force Commander’s thumbs down on the F-35 as the future mainstay of US airpower has deep implications for British defence policy. It means that the Navy must now think again about an aircraft of its carriers for the medium to long term. The F-35B Lightning II, to give it its full name, hardly looks adequate for the immediate future either.
Francis Tusa thinks that the F-35 crisis is another bad outcome from the UK’s excessive reliance on the US for aircraft and air systems. Lately, the purchase of the Boeing Poseidon P8 maritime surveillance aircraft has come at huge cost — with little work share for British industry and punitive and badly costed arrangements for maintenance and upgrades. The same goes for the new Wedgetail AWACS aircraft, of which the UK really needed at last five, but only could afford three.
The F-35 is quite clearly on borrowed time, which should provoke what Britain does next for its new air defence and combat air systems. With Bae Systems Britain is currently leading on a new Future Combat Air System based on a manned and unmanned aircraft, Tempest. It is partnered by Italy and Sweden in this, with invitations to Japan, India, and East European countries to join.
Much of the groundbreaking radar, cockpit and systems technology is being deployed in the upgraded version of the Typhoon II Eurofighter. This new model is being built in Germany and Spain for their air forces but in the UK only for the Qatar air force.
Tempest now has to be adapted to be the next plane for the British aircraft carriers. There has to be a major effort to get new partners, a process already under way – and they are likely to come from Europe, Asia, and possibly Latin America.
Not many favours can be expected from America. General Brown has said that his report on new aircraft will be part of the US Global Posture Review just ordered by the Lloyd Austin the new defence secretary in the Biden administration in preparation for the major defence budget of 2023. Brown has said the number of air combat wings are to be cut substantially. Allies like Britain will be asked to do more, not less.
“You might as well say that F-35 is dead in the water now,” says Paul Beaver, the independent analyst and former adviser to the MoD.
“Tempest will have to be developed with Europe,” says another senior defence executive and Royal Navy adviser. “It is far ahead, at least five years in advance of the European equivalent (SCAF) led by France with Germany and Spain. But as it is so far ahead,” the former commander warns, “the Americans will try to smother it , and undermine it for their own project.”
Pushing the next generation project like Tempest and Typhoon has an immediate political bonus for Boris Johnson. It is based on the Bae Systems complex at Warton in Lancashire, and offers the prospect of technology, development and employment across constituencies once known as the ‘Red Wall.’