Big challenges await new NATO boss, Mark Rutte
There will be no honeymoon period for Mark Rutte, who, after seven long months of campaigning, was confirmed today as new NATO boss, writes Caitlin Allen.
With the European military alliance facing its most perilous moment since the end of the Cold War, it will be straight to work for the outgoing Dutch PM.
While the 57-year old was long considered the frontrunner, his appointment was finally approved by all 32 members of the alliance this afternoon, after Romanian president, Klaus Iohannis, withdrew from the race.
Jens Stoltenberg, the popular outgoing NATO chief who had his term extended four times, will be a hard act to follow. What will Rutte’s appointment mean for the future of the alliance?
The Dutchman, from the centre-right VVD party, is considered a low-key politician, who prides himself on having driven the same second-hand Saab for over a decade. As Europe’s second-longest serving leader – topped only by Hungary’s Viktor Orbán – Rutte has built up an impressive phonebook, forging strong bonds, across political divides, with two generations of world leaders.
Though he will have to prove himself to the alliance’s eastern flank, amid resentment from some leaders that NATO’s top role always seems to go to western or northern Europeaners. He may aim to appease them by appointing an eastern European leader as his deputy.
As soon as Rutte enters office in October, Kyiv will be calling on him for help as a gruelling winter approaches. While the incoming NATO boss is not quite as hawkish as some eastern European members, he has shown steadfast support for Ukraine, recently pledging for the Netherlands to send another batch of F-16 fighter jets to Kyiv.
Rutte’s next major challenge will come just four weeks after he assumes his new role, when Americans head to the polls.
One of the biggest fears hanging over the alliance is the possible return of Donald Trump. The 2024 presidential hopeful has repeatedly threatened to cut off all US aid to Ukraine and to pull out of the alliance altogether.
He appears to have reneged on the latter threat for now. Even so, Trump’s hostility towards NATO has drawn attention to the alarming extent to which European security depends on the American taxpayer. Washington alone is responsible for providing over two thirds of NATO’s overall budget.
The prospect of a second Trump presidency has almost certainly helped Rutte to secure the top job. “I like this guy!”, then-president Trump once said of Rutte, who has sought praise throughout his career for being an effective consensus builder. POLITICO has even labelled him a Trump whisperer, on account of his rare ability to cajole the erratic former US president.
One obvious way for Rutte to prevent a US isolationist turn would be to act upon Trump’s – not exactly unfounded – complaint that other NATO countries aren’t pulling their weight.
While Britain’s foreign secretary David Cameron made a recent plea for NATO to make 2.5 per cent of GDP the benchmark for defence spending, a third of alliance members are yet to even meet the 2 per cent target, set by Barack Obama a decade ago.
Even the Netherlands has only just passed the 2 per cent threshold, after years of falling short under Rutte’s 14-year premiership. Another reason why some of the alliance’s eastern flank – who’ve committed much more to defence – feel a tad resentful about his appointment.
Persuading alliance members to bolster their defence spending will be one of the biggest challenges facing the incoming NATO boss. And he will be looking especially to Southern European nations – such as Italy, Spain and Portugal – which are among the worst offenders when it comes to not meeting the benchmark.
Ultimately if Rutte wants to prepare for the worst case scenario of a US withdrawal from NATO and if he wants to avoid this scenario altogether, then his best bet is to follow a single strategy: encourage European NATO members to boost their defence spending.
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