Boomers and millennials are not at war over Covid-19

Coronavirus is often seen through the prism of age. This is hardly surprising given the fundamentals of the pandemic; almost everyone dying of Covid-19 is old but the impact of measures to counter the virus tend to fall on the young.

As the crisis has evolved the heroes and villains have changed. In the early days of lockdown we heard about cautious, clued-up kids encouraging their parents to take the virus more seriously. Gradually, the narrative has shifted and in recent weeks “reckless” youngsters have been taking flak for flouting restrictions and spreading the virus – “killing granny”, as Matt Hancock put it.

The focus on age is compelling and feeds into the narrative of pre-existing economic grievances between generations. Coronavirus is being framed as an ideological issue – a new front in the Boomer-Millennial war.

Opinion polling tells a different story, however. Far from acting in self-interest, youngsters are in sync with their elders when it comes to how to tackle the virus – and are more frightened than they should be.

It is worth emphasising the gulf in relative risk from Covid that exists between generations. The risk of dying from coronavirus increases exponentially with age, doubling every five or six years, making an 85 year old one thousand times more likely to die after contracting Covid than a 25 year old.

In the UK, the median age of those who have died with Covid is 82 and 90% of deaths have been among those aged 65 or older. Fewer than 400 UK residents under the age of 60 without comorbidities have died as a result of coronavirus and, if you are under the age of 45, you are seven times more likely to die of cancer than of coronavirus.

But there is a vast gap between the reality and perception of personal risk among young people. A recent YouGov poll asked how worried participants were that they themselves might become seriously ill or die as a result of the Covid-19 outbreak. Concern increased with age and over two thirds (69%) of those over 65 said that they were either “fairly worried” or “very worried” for their own safety.

But a full third (33%) of 18-24 year olds also fell into one of these two categories. Only a quarter of this age group (26%) were “not worried at all”.

Last month an IPSOS Mori poll asked the same question. Incredibly, a quarter (26%) of 18-24 year olds said they were “very concerned” about the risk coronavirus posed to them personally, the same as the percentage of 55-75 year olds who also registered in this category.

The risk to younger people is not zero. There are unknowns, such as the impact of “long Covid”, as well as a minority of younger people classed as vulnerable. But humans of all ages are notoriously poor at judging risk. And because Covid is so much less risky for youngsters, the disparity between risk perception and reality is greatest in this age group.

A distorted idea of personal risk goes some way to explain the continued support for stringent restrictions that, while lower across all age groups since April, remains surprisingly high amongst young people.

A YouGov poll last week asked if participants were in favour of lifting coronavirus restrictions for the young while keeping them in place for the elderly and vulnerable. Among 18-24 year olds, 33% were in favour of doing so, just 7% more than those over 65. Just one third (32%) of 18-24 year olds opposed the fresh lockdown measures introduced at the end of September.

In a separate YouGov poll of 2500 adults, only 29% of 18-24 year olds opposed a two-week circuit-breaker lockdown, the same percentage as 25-49s and only fractionally higher than 50-65s (28%) and over 65s (25%).

According to Sweta Chakraborty, an Associate Director of the Institute for Global Policy in Washington D.C., part of the reason lies in a failure of government messaging: “Unless risk is communicated effectively to the public, perceptions will win out. The lack of a coherent communications strategy makes policymakers vulnerable to perceptions which the media then amplify,” Chakraborty told Reaction.

“A feedback loop means that policy decisions are then based on the demands of terrified constituents, rather than on what the scientists know.” The government’s risk messaging has been one-size-fits-all and fear has spread in young and old alike.

Of course – as well as personal risk – concern for family, friends and the nation as a whole along with myriad personal and political dispositions all shape opinions on how we should tackle the virus.

Age, however, doesn’t seem to be one of them. “With most of the other recent political issues – like Brexit and the last two general elections – the age gap has been massive,” Anthony Wells, director of YouGov’s political and social opinion polling, told Reaction. “With coronavirus, opinion is almost unified by age. There is a difference, but not of that scale.”

“I suspect that lots of the differences that do emerge between age groups are not due to age itself, but down to more prosaic reasons, like whether someone is politically aligned with the government or not.

“Other reasons are to do with lifestyle. It’s about what impacts more on your own life. It’s practicalities rather than principles.” Far from waging intergenerational war, old and young are pretty much on the same page.

Whether or not they should be isn’t so clear. As the crisis has progressed, the social, educational and economic burden on the young, both immediate and yet to come, has come into sharper focus. And for many, the recent decision to maintain the triple lock on state pensions has confirmed that costs are being shared unfairly.

Youngsters have every reason to oppose further restrictions, but they don’t. It’s one more reason to stop giving them such a hard time.