Boris beats the Brexit Party by becoming the Brexit Party
What a first week in the job this has been for Boris! He sacked 21 MPs and lost his majority, lost all four of his four first votes in Office, lost control of Commons business, lost an attempt to prevent a law passing that will force the request of a Brexit extension, failed to get an election called, faced a barrage of contempt in the House of Commons and his own brother has quit while implying Boris isn’t acting in the national interest. It couldn’t have gone much worse, but could Boris turn this all to his advantage?
With every apparently devastating failure, the ‘anti-establishment’ message grows stronger. The campaign writes itself: The ‘establishment’ is out to get him, and the election is the ‘people vs parliament’. Dominic Cummings has already been testing the campaign slogan “trust the people” with focus groups for marginal seats. Boris will pose as a man of the people and tell the public that a vote for him is a vote for Brexit and a vote for anyone else is a vote for get Jeremy Corbyn and Remain. It’s Pure Brexit populism designed to eat into the Brexit Party’s vote share.
For Boris, everything is riding on this election. If he loses, he will become the shortest-lived occupant of Downing Street ever and he’ll lose the Conservative leadership. It would be a humiliation. If he wins, he can finally get Britain out of the EU, get on with his domestic agenda and set about developing a legacy that changes the country and realigns British politics.
The problem is that Brexit could be his biggest weakness as well as his biggest strength. If he has been unable to deliver on his pledge to get us out by 31st October and even forced into requesting an extension, his credibility will be seriously damaged in the eyes of Brexit voters. The Brexit Party will have all the ammunition it needs.
That’s why so far Boris has been adamant he will not request an extension under any circumstances. To protect his credibility, he may have to do something drastic like step aside and force Corbyn to request one as temporary PM. Johnson was elected leader because the Conservatives were shaken by the Brexit Party’s victory in the European elections (with the Tories languishing in fifth). The whole purpose of his leadership is to take the wind out of Farage’s sails and unite Leavers behind him.
An electoral pact could be a sure-fire way to victory. Farage certainly seems to think so, appearing on BBC news today he said: “If you put the support for Boris Johnson’s Conservatives and the Brexit Party together, the truth is, in a general election, with a clear policy, we’d be unstoppable”. The problem is that Farage wants Boris to adopt a no deal Brexit as his primary policy, whereas Boris wants to pursue a deal (or at least wants to be able to say that he wants a deal). A pact may also aggravate the inevitable problem of losing moderate and liberal votes to the Liberal Democrats.
It’s more likely that the Conservatives will directly compete with the Brexit Party which won’t be easy. Farage has a devoted and impassioned following. They have a field of candidates far stronger than Ukip ever had and an appeal to many that goes beyond their unequivocal Brexit stance. At his rallies, Farage sets out an agenda that goes way beyond Brexit and appeals directly to the so-called “left behind” and disaffected Tories. At their rallies the Brexit Party have made an array of pledges, from cutting foreign aid to protecting British steel and saving the high street.
The problem for Farage’s gang is that whenever a Brexit Party candidate is asked about the risk of splitting the Leave vote, they flounder. When they get into the voting booth there will be a great many Leave supporters who will conclude that voting for the Conservatives clearly makes Brexit more likely and vote accordingly.
Johnson will attempt to beat the Brexit Party by becoming the Brexit Party. Adopting a hardline stance with the EU and pitching to northern, older Leave-backing voters. There is no doubt that this bring many Leave voters flocking back, but to many Conservatives, this strategy brings back memories of the heady days of peak Mayism. Remember ‘crush the saboteurs?’
May turned her back on the liberal Toryism of Cameron hoping to make up for losses by winning Labour seats in the Midlands, the north-east and Wales. Boris will re-run a failed strategy by campaigning on Brexit, cash for the NHS, a crackdown on crime, restrictions on immigration and infrastructure for the north all laced with a Trumpish anti-establishment flavour.
The risk of the gamble comes from the resurgence of the Lib Dems, the unpopularity of Boris and Brexit in Scotland (coupled with the loss of Ruth Davidson) and the stubborn loyalty to Labour in their northern heartlands. Winning a majority will be quite a feat.
Team Boris believe they can deliver where team May failed. The manifesto of 2017 was a dreadful document that grabbed the headlines for all the wrong reasons. It contained several potentially unpopular ‘take your medicine’ policies that might have worked as a wider message of sound economic management (a Cameron/Osborne strategy dropped by team May). Theresa May’s poor communication skills and lack of sparkle on the campaign trail confounded a bad situation.
This time round, there’s no doubt that there will be a manifesto chock full of policies that are easily pitched on the doorstep and explained in a sentence in the newspapers. Boris has an efficient, ruthless and experienced communications team that will run a slick, data driven campaign. They are unlikely to repeat the mistakes of team May.
A lot is riding on the received wisdom that Boris is a natural on the stump. He has certainly gained a reputation for giving well received, amusing speeches at events and conferences. However, as prime minister he is in a very different position and on the evidence so far the reliance on his star quality is another risk.
At his first PMQ’s he made Corbyn look good and his speeches have all been disappointing. His walkabout in Morley was dismal, with Boris facing a number of disgruntled members of the public and not responding well. This was something David Cameron was far better at. The hope will be that he performs better at campaign set pieces surrounded by activists, but he’ll have to do better than he did at the police training centre in Wakefield on Thursday where he looked startled, confused and out of his depth.
Ultimately, Boris and co have no choice but to go for broke. The election remains highly unpredictable, but with Corbyn at the helm of the opposition with an incoherent and disingenuous Brexit policy, and the Remain vote split across four parties a small Conservative majority still seems to be the most likely outcome