Boris Johnson is past his sell-by date

Sometimes, a comment seems to define the mood around public events. During the December 2019 general election – how distant that now seems – a friend of mine was canvassing for a Tory candidate in a red wall seat. He asked a self-confessed traditional Labour voter about Jeremy Corbyn. The chap shook his head: “He’s not right for us.” The wall was crumbling.

This weekend, a Swindon voter gave her opinion of Boris Johnson: “He’s making a fool of the country.” A large number of Tory MPs having been hearing variations on that theme, from a large number of constituents. A consensus may be emerging that it would be better to wait for Sue Gray’s report before sending in letters to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee, Sir Graham Brady. But many Tories are also praying that Gray’s findings will be damning.

It is unlikely that they will be disappointed. Those who know Sue Gray say that she has a powerful forensic intelligence, so we can expect a lucid narrative. She is also a devout Roman Catholic with a strong though unobtrusive moral sense. Her Catholicism is somewhat different from Boris Johnson’s. 

Although she is unlikely to deliver an explicit verdict, the facts themselves will almost certainly do that for her. The PM’s few remaining supporters may try to find quibble-room. Such-and-such a statement was a prevarication, not a lie direct. As the garden of Downing St is Crown property, the parties were not breaking the law. All that is on a par with being unable to tell the difference between one of the garden parties and a work session. How stupid does the PM think that the voters are? Then again, perhaps Boris himself cannot tell the difference.

Others can. Any excuses he tries to make will merely lead to a further haemorrhage of dignity, a further stoking-up of public anger, a further reinforcement of Graham Brady’s post-bag. In response, Boris may try to deflect the wrath on to junior officials. When the first party stories emerged, he was quick to declare that if people in No.10 had broken the rules, there would be disciplinary consequences. He was clearly preparing to expiate his misdeeds by sacrificing others.

That is unlikely to work. Loyal is as loyal does. If youngsters in Downing Street conclude that the PM would be happy to throw them under a bus, they will prefer to turn Gray’s evidence. Although rules may have been broken by Downing St staffers, the example came from the top. 

There is one member of the No.10 team who does not deserve sympathy. But she will be safe, as long as he is. Boris is unlikely to sack his wife, even if it is widely believed that none of this mess would have happened if he had still been married to Marina.

Apropos mess, the question weighing on many Tory minds is the extent to which the PM has now tarnished their brand. Here, Tories may be in luck. In deference to Boris’s powers as a Latinist, let us describe him as sui generis: such a unique figure that it is easy for those who hope to become his former colleagues to differentiate themselves from him.

There is a further factor. Although our PM has resemblances to Donald Trump, there is one crucial difference. Trump is an unquiet ghost. Indeed, he does not even accept that he is dead. But when Boris ceases to be his Party’s leader, the relationship will be over. He will have no leverage on the Tories’ future. If he is paid enough, he will no doubt be happy to express political views. But why should anyone listen to him?

He might well end up as a slapstick entertainer, something like the Rector of Skiffkey, a defrocked clergyman in the 1930s whose antics embarrassed the Church of England hierarchy until he was providentially mauled to death by a lion. As long as Boris steers clear of lions’ cages, he will find a role, of sorts. It will have nothing to do with serious politics.

Apropos serious politics, the Tory party ought to re-establish its reputation and restate its principles. Tories should stand for common sense and realism. In Chris Patten’s phrase, the facts of life are conservative. In an undemonstrative way, Tories should also uphold patriotism. When Keir Starmer poses in front of a Union Flag, it looks like a stunt. Tories have no need of stunts. Their love of country is heart-felt. But Tories have the perennial task of refuting the charge that the are the party of the rich, by the rich, for the rich. The answer to that is a constant re-iteration of the link between economic success and social generosity. David Cameron was good at that, but the message will have to be repeated in every political generation.

That means a Tory Leader who is taken seriously, and extensive debates during a leadership campaign should help the new one to emerge as a serious political, intellectual and moral presence – as opposed to the present degringolade.

As the great Matt put it in a recent Daily Telegraph cartoon: “Prime Ministers are like bottles of milk. You can tell when they are going off.” Boris has gone off. It just remains for his Party to recognise this, and make him go off.