Boris may get his happy ending to the Brexit saga after all

The British have long been adept at producing epic literary sagas in a gothic setting. In the 19th century the English novelist Mary Shelley wrote Frankenstein, a monstrous tale centred on an ill-advised experiment gone wrong. In the late 20th century much of J.K. Rowling’s Harry Potter series took place at Hogwarts, a boarding school modelled on the austere architectural style made popular by the school of architects who designed buildings such as the Palace of Westminster.

But for dark drama, and ludicrous plot twists, nothing can quite top the 21st century Brexit saga as it has unfolded in the crumbling, gothic House of Commons since Britain voted in 2016 to leave the European Union. Increasingly the grim tale is like a cross between the feature film Groundhog Day, in which a weatherman is condemned to live the same day over and over again, and the Michael Dobbs original version of House of Cards.

Then, on Saturday, the scriptwriters of Brexit produced their most implausible development yet in the entire series. Rather than endorsing the deal painstakingly agreed with the European Union, MPs voted for further delay. They backed an amendment proposed by former Tory MP Oliver Letwin MP, the Tory veteran who has been at the scene of endless political disasters throughout his long career in public service. There is nothing, absolutely nothing, that Letwin cannot make more complicated than it needs to be.

Sitting in the Commons press gallery on Saturday afternoon I must admit that my head hit the desk in despair when the Letwin amendment passed. It was not just a question of personal disappointment that Brexit will not be done one way or the other soon. The stupidity of the latest move was obvious. The smuggery and self-congratulation of those MPs who pushed it through looked like a blatant provocation directed straight at the many people out there who simply want this dealt with.

Just when it had looked as though MPs would make a decision and move things on from the first phase of Brexit, settling the divorce, yesterday they chose yet more self-indulgence and prevarication.

What had been on the agenda was a simple vote to endorse or reject the deal in principle that Johnson secured in Brussels at the latest meeting of the European Council last week. The Johnson deal, amending aspects of Theresa May’s original and failed deal, involves a compromise on Northern Ireland and customs. The EU side was positive and going into the weekend Number 10 was optimistic that they had the numbers to pass a meaningful vote signalling approval by the Commons.

Up popped Letwin. As one of his former colleagues pointed out to me, it was so daft. He could easily have sought and secured a guarantee from Johnson that there would be no funny business once the meaningful vote was passed unamended. The Commons could have been told that Johnson was on notice and pledged to get the legislation passed or the Commons would swiftly bring him down or reinforce the Benn Act with help from the EU. Letwin didn’t have to go ahead with an amendment which removed the decisive moment, the decisive meaningful vote, with the EU watching.

Instead, with the EU seeking a conclusion as much as most other reasonable people, Letwin pressed ahead, conducting another of his symphonies in highly-educated idiocy.

MPs who want to stop Brexit completely spotted their opportunity.  His amendment passed – 322 to 306 – effectively killing off Johnson’s attempt to get headline approval from MPs. The DUP, an Ulster Unionist party that previously propped up the Tory minority administration and once again can only say “no” to everything, has also become increasingly obstructive. This is a tragedy for Unionism. What could have been a moment of maturity – with Ulster Unionism owning the compromise – became yet another Northern Ireland grudge match with London.

The passing of the Letwin amendment does not mean that Brexit is off or the deal with the EU is dead. Rather, it means that the mess remains unresolved and in the days and weeks ahead there will be yet more shouting in Britain’s parliament as a bewildered and increasingly frustrated British electorate looks on.

Many of those looking on will conclude that the political process has effectively ceased to function in any useful or meaningful way. It has been replaced with a parliamentary horror story, with endless arguments between MPs always opting to delay a moment of decision. At every stage, MPs have been able to agree on what they do not like. But they have been incapable of voting positively for a solution or a deal.

On one level it is getting steadily worse – the decay gets worse every week. The big picture is that already the botched attempts by the British to leave have led to the departure of two Prime Ministers, David Cameron and Theresa May. Bitter divisions between and within the country’s political parties have spilled into rancorous public discourse. At times in the last year it has seemed as though Britain’s long-established party system, built around two main parties, and an array of smaller parties, would come apart at the seams. A string of MPs have resigned and crossed the floor, or now sit as independents.

In the country, the divisions between leave and remain now seem impossible to resolve. A vociferous Remain campaign has developed, demanding a rerun of the referendum. At the other end of the spectrum, Nigel Farage MEP, the leader of the insurgent Brexit party says loudly that any deal with the EU is surrender and doesn’t count as “real” Brexit. It is hard to avoid concluding that when it comes to Farage he needs to protect his brand, which centres on his new vehicle – the Brexit party – and his various bits of broadcasting. Brexit actually happening would be bad for his career.

In the middle of the farce, plainly trying to sort it out, is Boris Johnson. His team’s hope going into the weekend was that there would – finally – be closure on the first phase of Brexit. It was not to be.

All is far from lost though. The government is pressing on and trying to get the legislation required through both the Commons and the House of Lords. There may be more votes on Monday. The EU is monitoring the situation closely.

On Saturday evening Number 10 also provided a public service by winding-up the Twitter legal brigade that is so much against Brexit. Johnson sent only threadbare requests for an extension, effectively asking the European Commission to swallow the idea that the Number 10 dog has eaten his howework.

But the numbers do seem to be building in the Commons for an attempt  at passing such a deal at some point in the next few weeks.

There are also fascinating indicators of a shift in how Johnson is perceived outside the UK by other leaders. In the EU, Johnson’s determination to get Brexit done  is building him an unexpected reputation as an unorthodox statesman with a longer-term future. Other European leaders, who found Theresa May extremely hard work socially, seem to have warmed to the roguish Johnson. At the European Council they looked genuinely pleased to see him. He makes leaders laugh and uses charm to make progress.

It is worth remembering that Johnson was not given much of a chance of even getting close to securing a new deal with the European Union. Yet he bartered an improved deal that is endorsed by the EU.

Other European leaders have noticed this and are planning ahead for relations after Brexit, assuming that Johnson wins a British election and MPs ever allow one.

One of the least noticed but most interesting observations at the European Council came from Emmanuel Macron. The President of France has become an unlikely admirer of the Johnson approach to getting things done. At his press conference, Macron said: “He (Johnson) is sometimes a colourful character, but it can be the case for all of us. He is who he is, but I believe he is a leader with genuine strategic vision, and those who did not take him seriously were wrong and will continue to be wrong.”

That is an astute observation. Johnson has surprised on the upside. In the weeks and months ahead there will be many twists and turns, but it has already proved silly to write him off. If the votes head in his direction in parliament then Boris may yet get a happy ending to the Brexit saga – an orderly exit via his deal.