Boris needs a Night of the Long Knives to reshape his Cabinet
It is pleasant to know that one is read in high places. Last week I wrote that Boris would probably win the next general election. While I was not as contemptuously dismissive of Sir Keir Starmer as a lot of others, I concluded that he was a long way from being a threat. All this clearly upset our PM. He has lived his entire life fuelled by the constant stimulus of risk. If everything seems easy, he is inclined to grow bored. He also may feel sorry for poor old Keir. That is the only explanation for the events of the past week. We have seen a deliberate attempt to undermine the government’s credibility and throw Labour a bone even when the government is making a success of the vaccination programme. First, there was the Cornish holiday shambles. One minister declared that it was far too early to plan such a trip. A second, that it might not be possible to visit Cornwall this year. A third intervened: “Sorry, chaps: I’ve already booked.” The three wise monkeys try their hand at cabinet government.
There was worse to come. The proposal to punish quarantine breaches with ten years in prison was greeted with universal execration among serious lawyers. It must be one of the silliest proposals ever to emerge from a British government. It made the ministry sound like an especially tinny tin-pot dictator, panicking at the imminent threat of a military coup. There was also the business of Cressida Dick, with the Prime Minister and the Home Secretary unable to agree. One might have assumed that If there was one PM from whom Boris did not need to learn lessons, it is that cynical old roue, Melbourne. Surely Boris already knows it all. Not so. At the end of an early cabinet meeting, Melbourne briefly barred his colleagues’ way to the exit, telling them that “it does not matter what we say, but mind, we must all say the same.” That did not happen under Theresa May, which regularly led to a shambles. After his latest shambles, Boris needs to restore order.
He also needs a new cabinet. Kate Bingham of vaccine fame recently gave an interview to some foreign journalists. It was an immensely impressive performance. I could not recall when I last came across such a tour de force from a minister. Boris is clearly in favour of first-rank advisors. He has appointed Simon Case and Dan Rosenfield to crucial roles. They are now to be joined by Simone Finn and Henry Newman. Despite an unsolved grip problem, as last week showed, this is a formidable team. So why does the PM not draw the obvious conclusion? If he believes in appointing first-raters to his back office, why does he persevere with one of the weakest cabinets in recorded history, and this at a time when Britain and the wider world are beset by difficulties?
His first Cabinet favoured Brexiteers and his own strong supporters. It is time to move on. Nothing but a radical reshuffle will do. Let us start with Matt Hancock. Few ministers have ever had such a difficult year. There have been mistakes. He was involved in last week’s confusions. But he has also shown the ability to battle his way through: dogged as does it. Lesser men might have lost their nerve: no sign of that with him. At a convenient moment, he deserves a move to a new challenge. In an ideal world, he would first enjoy a three month respite, as ambassador to the lotus islands. That is not how British ministerial appointments work. There is no alternative: send him straight to housing – a crucial policy area and a vital electoral one.
It helps that there is an obvious replacement: a previous Health Secretary, Jeremy Hunt. He recently gave an interview in which it became clear that he had used his time out of office and chairing the Health Select Committee to think through the problems of the NHS. Now is the time for him to solve them.
He is not the only previous minister who ought to be recalled to his old department. In this confused and dangerous world, it is vital that we in the UK should continue to punch above our weight on international matters. We are at least as good at foreign policy as any other nation – not that this is saying much, at the moment – and could have a lot of wise counsel to offer. But that would require a Foreign Secretary of the highest calibre, which is not Dominic Raab. He is worth a place in the team. But he is not right for the FCO. There are two obvious candidates to replace him, though initially their names will seem surprising. The first is a fit 54 year-old who may not actually have been Foreign Secretary but does have vast experience of the subject matter. There would be problems, including the 0.7% percent of GDP for foreign aid, but if Boris were to offer David Cameron the job it would, inter alia, prove that the PM has the political self-confidence which he is often suspected of lacking. That said, it is probably too early for Mr Cameron to return to the front line.
There is a more orthodox choice. When the now Lord Hague was Foreign Secretary, there was some disappointment. What was his foreign policy? This was unfair. Back then, everything was dominated by the EU membership debate. In that sole respect, it would now be easier to do the job. William Hague’s peerage should not be held against him. First, the rules could be changed to allow MPs to question him. Second, he would have a cabinet-rank deputy in the Commons, as in the days of Peter Carrington and Ian Gilmour.
The next retread involves a purely domestic post. Gentle reader, can you name the chairman of the Conservative Party? I thought not. No-one knows why Amanda Milling was appointed, or what she has done since. This means several missed opportunities. First, the beginning of a full-majority parliament is the perfect time for a fundamental review. If the party was setting up a secretariat tomorrow, whom would it employ? How many headquarters should it have, and where? How would it liaise with the voluntary party and the constituencies? Those are questions which a proper chairman would address, as well as being involved in political strategy at the highest level. One aim should be to reach beyond the Tories’ gains in Wales, the Midlands and the North; to treat every Labour seat in those regions as a marginal. Equally, once Covid becomes less important, the chairman should be the minister for the Today programme. There is an obvious candidate for all this. James Cleverly was a popular and successful chairman for a few months. Reappoint him for a proper stint, with full cabinet rank.
Michael Gove spent four years as Education Secretary. It was a galvanising period. Send him back to finish the job, as long as this does not prevent him getting tore into Nicola Sturgeon. As one of the principal items in the long charge-sheet against the SNP is the damage which it has inflicted on Scottish education. There should be synergy.
The shuffled-out should include Nat Evans in the Lords, to be replaced by George Bridges, who would add heft to the Government at several levels. Robert Jenrick, Grant Schapps and Gavin Williamson should go. There is no need for plodders. Philip Dunne, Sajid Javid and Jesse Norman are more than ready for Cabinet. So is Ed Argar, who has had a good war as Matt Hancock’s deputy. Argar has a quality which all PMs come to value increasingly. He has a safe pair of hands. To switch sporting metaphors, he always knows where his off stump is. As Lord President of the Council and Leader of the Commons, Jacob Rees-Mogg ought to have full Cabinet rank
Other rising stars include Victoria Atkins, Kemi Badenoch, and prisons minister Lucy Frazer. The PM could do worse than promoting Badenoch. She is a great fighter.
In the profoundly unlikely event of Boris taking my advice, it would be the biggest reshuffle since Macmillan’s Night of the Long Knives in 1962. Although that was much derided at the time and criticised as a panic measure, Harold Mac had promoted new talent to create a stronger cabinet. So should Boris.
If in three years’ time the PM and his colleagues have delivered good government while Keir Starmer is still plodding, no-one will care about the fine print of the 2021 reshuffle. If not, anything and everything will be thrown at Boris. But good government requires a good team.