How does Brexit collapse and how does the UK stay in the EU exactly?
Everyone needs a holiday. At opposite ends of the spectrum in the Westminster/Whitehall village, and its environs, there is a consensus that Brexit is in deep trouble. Brexiteers are down in the dumps. The concept of getting a Remainer, Theresa May, to implement Brexit, on a Brexit means breakfast basis, has not been a success. The results have been, so far, sub-optimal.
On the ultra-remainer side all that talk of “respecting the result” is out the window. Listen, they say, you can feel it in the air! On Twitter! And in the downbeat expression of some bloke from the Treasury who they ran into slightly pissed at one of London’s summer parties where he said that it won’t happen now, but let’s overlook that he never wanted it to happen in the first place. So confirmation bias. But we can stop this! They’re on the run! Let’s join the euro! No, sorry, got carried away there. Let’s beg them to overlook Article 50 and pretend all this never happened! Or reapply! Where do we sign?! Meanwhile, although the EU is losing its second largest contributor, and the country that houses London, which makes the eurozone debt machine go round, the EU is nonetheless presented widely as being in the most extraordinarily strong position, while poor old Britain sinks into the sea.
There are a few problems with the Brexit won’t happen analysis, however, and I haven’t even mentioned membership of the EU, an organisation which seems to have gone to a new level of crazy bananas with its “state” funeral for Helmut Kohl in the chamber the other day.
It is only a year since the British voted 52-48 to leave the EU. It was not an overwhelming win, but it was a clear margin of victory. Polls since then have shown that very few people have changed their minds – and when you combine the “for Brexit” vote with the “just get on with it” vote, an overwhelming majority of opinion has accepted it is happening.
In the subsequent general election, the two major parties scored a combined 82.4%. Both were clearly committed in their manifestos to leaving the European Union. Of course within that number are plenty of people who voted Remain, or who would rather it wasn’t happening but they voted knowing the British system. There was a party available committed to overturning the referendum and stopping Brexit. It got nowhere and only 12 seats. Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell are anti-EU Bennites, on the old hard-left basis that it is a capitalist club standing in the way of nationalising the economy. This is not a secret and if you overlooked it or didn’t know, well, you’ve been had.
Yet, if – now – Brexit is to be stopped because of a “feeling” that ultra-Remainers suddenly have in their heads, how, exactly, will it happen? Parliament is the forum, if they fancy a go. The House of Lords (containing masses of Lib Dems and no Ukippers, funny that) will certainly see its role as being to block Brexit, but the Commons has primacy and there it would take one or both frontbenches to switch on Brexit and to say that the referendum result should be cast aside.
Imagine the reaction out there in Brexity places across Britain if this happens. Fury doesn’t quite cover it. Indeed, I hate to think of the consequences. It would prove right every accusation about the political class having contempt for the voters.
In that climate, a British government (with half the Tory cabinet having resigned and the Tory party split and perhaps an anti-EU Marxist Corbyn entering Number 10) would have to go to Brussels and say please stop Article 50, can we stay? Please sir, Mr Juncker, can we have some more?
That humiliation would be something to see.
For this to unfold the economy has to crash like never before, bigger than 2008, to show how bad Brexit is and to terrify the voters back into the EU. That leaves ultra-remainers actively and patriotically hoping for and willing a collapse so that their country might crawl back on its knees. What a bizarre ambition, and all to get into a not very good organisation that is too big, badly run and not nice to countries with names other than Germany or France.
Anything is possible, of course, but the political and media class high summer madness does seem overdone. More likely is a difficult negotiation and a series of compromises, leading to a three year transition deal and the EEA and Efta. And Britain leaves the European Union.
I’ll write more about the EU and why we are right to leave it, to seek a new and constructive relationship with it as a self-governing nation, in my Reaction newsletter tomorrow, if you like that sort of thing, or not.
