Brexit drama? You ain’t seen nothing yet…
Any minute now the Prime Minister, Theresa May, will publish her Brexit agreement with the European Union. She will do so having consulted the Cabinet. The agreement will then go to Parliament to be voted upon. It seems probable she will win the votes she needs for it to gain sufficient support. If that happens it will be a moment of significant achievement for her and her team. They should enjoy it. They should enjoy it because reaching that point will be seen as the easy part. It’s what comes next – negotiating the permanent relationship between the UK and the EU – that is really going to cause even more trouble.
At this point it really doesn’t matter whether you think Brexit is a good or bad idea. It doesn’t matter whether you think the referendum carries integrity or not. It shouldn’t worry you that the Brexit Secretary says he hadn’t understood how complicated Brexit actually is (he’s clever, he’ll catch up). What does matter is that both the Prime Minister and Jeremy Corbyn, the alternative choice for the job, both agree Brexit should occur. We – the voters, taxpayers, the people – have been given the chance to express a view and have done so. We do not, in fact, have any further say, let alone choice in the matter until the next election.
Once the Brexit withdrawal agreement is concluded the clock then starts ticking on the two year negotiation period for the UK/EU permanent trade deal and this is going to cause all sorts of trouble, disruption, uncertainty, instability and political upset. All the arguments we have seen rehearsed about the customs union, single market, Canada plus, Norway, Canada plus plus, Switzerland, Canada plus plus plus, WTO, and all the rest of it will be back in spades. There will be two more years of brinkmanship inside the parties and Parliament, and between the UK and the EU. Two more years of business nervousness. And two more years of the central government machine being clogged up and ground down by the immensity of the process involved in detaching the UK from the EU.
The British system is being bruised badly by the Brexit process. Judges, civil servants, business bosses, and faith leaders have all found themselves under fire from politicians. Independence and integrity is questioned, process and structure attacked.
Even the Cabinet Secretary, Sir Mark Sedwill, has felt it necessary to write a public letter defending his senior colleagues from constant partisan attack. It is an extraordinary national moment. Inside the two main political parties at Westminster, let alone across the Despatch Boxes, personal relationships are fraying and mistrust building. The media, traditional as well as social, is becoming increasingly shrill and partisan.
At the centre of this political tsunami sits the Prime Minister. Assailed on every side, constantly under assault. Yet we are not even at half the way point of settling our relationship with the European Union. If this process is not to drain the life out of politics and public debate over the next two years as much as it has over the last two then we need to see a herculean political effort to recast Brexit as more than just being about trade and commerce, and a process about reuniting our communities behind a new confident and purposeful vision for the country as a whole.