Brexit: what on earth happens now?

As MPs woke up to another Brexit morning after a night before of unpredictable voting some things were becoming clearer, with the caveat that it is not easy to see how they will be achieved.

It is clear a majority of MPs do not want Britain to leave the European Union without a deal.

It is clear a majority of MPs can unite around the idea of an approach to a negotiation that they want the Prime Minister to now adopt, her own plan having been defeated.

The majority for each of these amendments is not composed of the same MPs, some but not all.

What MPs have asked the Prime Minister to do is mainly what has already been asked for and refused. The belief is that by showing they can unite around an approach to the negotiation the European Commission will understand that if they now agree to what is being asked then MPs will support Mrs May.

No guarantees were provided by the Brexiteers that they would support whatever the Prime Minister was able to negotiate. Mrs May, who twice clearly stated in the chamber of the Commons her view that in Brussels and across the 27 capitals of the members of the European Union the appetite for further negotiation is limited, will travel more in hope than expectation.

Mrs May has two weeks to sort all this out and come back to MPs.

This is where we are today. What happens next? Here are the options:

May goes to Brussels, negotiates hard, comes back to the House of Commons and wins MPs’ approval for what she has negotiated. Britain leaves the European Union on 29 March with a settled position. Mrs May triumphs where only a few weeks before her policy lay in tatters.

May goes to Brussels, negotiates hard, comes back to the House of Commons and fails to win MPs’ support for what she has negotiated. Britain faces leaving the European Union on 29 March without a settled position. Mrs May suffers a further defeat on the key policy of her Premiership.

What then does the Prime Minister do?

It has been supposed by many that whatever else happens Mrs May would not preside over Britain’s departure from the European Union without a deal, but who knows whether this is the case or not. No one knows what she really thinks.

If she will not tolerate no deal then logic suggests she has to reach out across the House of Commons and build a consensus on the way forward. This will almost certainly involve agreeing to things that may command the support of a majority of MPs as a whole but probably a minority of Conservative MPs.

The Prime Minister may feel she has exhausted all reasonable, and some unreasonable, areas of discussion in order to secure a deal. But she is faced with a hopelessly fractious House of Commons, and an EU that refuses to move as far as she needs it to. That being the case if it is simply not possible to secure a politically viable deal, and she has no wish to destroy the Conservative Party, it falls to her to try and hold the country together as it proceeds on an inexorable course to a no deal Brexit.

“There is limited appetite for further negotiation in Brussels”, Mrs May said twice to MPs yesterday in the Commons. She appears to be hoping for the first option – success – but recognising the other options are possible.

Last night, MPs were reluctant to grab powers for themselves. The Spelman amendment, which stated that a no deal Brexit is unacceptable, passed because unlike the other amendments on the same theme it carried no practical or punitive effect on the government. Indeed MPs as a group have throughout this whole process proved longer on rhetoric than on practical action. Threats by MPs to block a no deal Brexit may or may not have huge substance and few wise people would put a big bet on them doing so.

There is, of course, one further option which no-one has yet mentioned in public, if Mrs May comes back from Brussels and fails to win Parliamentary support she could resign saying she has done her best but achieving a deal which commands the support of MPs is not possible and that she is not prepared to preside over a no deal Brexit. Mrs May could do this, which would almost certainly necessitate Britain delaying Brexit while the Conservatives sorted out who the new leader should be. This is possible but unlikely. Mrs May is not a quitter.

In a fortnight then if the Prime Minister cannot negotiate something with the EU that commands the support of MPs then inevitably the options boil down to no deal Brexit or a national vote – General Election or referendum. Given the last referendum has hugely damaged Parliamentary authority and sovereignty a General Election, no matter how difficult and shambolic it might be, seems today to be another step closer.