Brexit scaremongering is backfiring in the country

One of the bitter lessons that Remain campaigners learnt from their humiliating referendum defeat was the brilliant use of language adopted by leave crusaders, particularly that of Vote Leave’s campaign director, Dominic Cummings.

It was Cummings who came up with the evocative “Take Back Control”, mantra while describing anti-EU campaigners as Brexiteers worked to create an image of swashbuckling buccaneers taking their country back. It harked back to an age of gentlemen pirates, figures like Sir Francis Drake, fighting for his Queen on the open seas. (It’s interesting to note that the FT switched from calling Brexiteers to Brexiters, far less glamorous.)

Getting the psychology of messaging right is why soon after the referendum result, Remainer groups such as Britain Stronger in Europe which morphed into Open Britain, decided to rethink their entire campaigning. Blairite spin-doctors took over. What emerged, according to insiders, was a conscious decision to be far more vivid and catchy with their own signalling, to use better buzzwords to foster a new climate of fear.

It’s why you will have noticed that previous slogans such as Hard, Soft, Scrambled or Clean Brexit being used by pro-EU campaigners have all but disappeared from the chattering class lingo. Instead, the more strident politicians were advised by the Remainer campaigners like Open Britain to strike a new tone in their media appearances. Tony Blair led the way in his utterances.

Now the language is all about “crashing out”, “cliff-edge”, “cliff-hanger” and what they hope to be most terrifying of all, the stark No Deal. Unsurprisingly, most of the scare stories about food or medicine shortages have come from the most political of the pro-EU groups, such as Airbus and JLR, which support keeping relations with the EU as soft as possible.

But have the new tactics of the Remainers backfired once again? It certainly seems that way. If you look at the recent polls, and the comments of a growing number of the public and business leaders being asked about their preferences, they suggest a shift to just wanting to get on with Brexit, deal or No Deal. Many now say they prefer No Deal. As Project Fear showed in the 2016 campaign, so vividly, scaring the Brits is not such a clever tactic. And as the recent cold snap and snowfalls illustrates, any excuse to stockpile on food and bed down in the home bunker is something that rather appeals to the British spirit.

Indeed, the latest scaremongering from Unilever, the Anglo-Dutch conglomerate which has been a vocal Remain supporter, that it is stocking up on Magnums, the ice cream, for a No Deal must be the non-story of the year. Someone in the Unilever press office should have looked out of the window before putting that press release out in this weather.

Even a new survey out today from the Institute of Directors, another pro-EU campaigner, which says that 16% of its 1200 members have relocation plans while a further 13% were actively considering a move, has been taken with a pinch of salt.

It also caused something of a twitter storm as the BBC ran the IoD story with a misleading headline suggesting that a third of all UK firms, rather than saying a third of all the institute’s members, are considering a relocation. (Just for accuracy’s sake, 93% of the UK’s business do not do business with the EU.)

So that sort of bias just doesn’t work anymore. The public has seen through the scary stuff and, if anything, resolve is stiffened by it.

And where are the headlines from the Alliance of British Entrepreneurs? This voluntary alliance – which includes Sir Rocco Forte and Tim Martin of Wetherspoons, (who is getting too much airplay for his own good) also represents more than 400 pro-Brexit SME businesses across Britain which support a clean Brexit. It has another 600 or so more silent supporters and the ABE says they are ready and waiting and have no problems looming in the event of No Deal.

Who’s right about the implications of a No Deal on the country? The truth is that no one has a clue but what is certain is that the media frenzy around the scare stories is irresponsible hype of the most dangerous kind.

Of far greater importance to Britain is the stunning intervention of Germany’s ifo, the country’s leading Institute for Economic Research think-tank, which has published a damning report criticising the European Commission for mishandling its negotiations with the UK. Ifo’s authors call on Brussels to rip up the Irish backstop and come up with a pragmatic plan to seal a deal with the UK. They also warn that: “In a standard game of chicken, the actor who loses the most will dodge first. Can the EU really be sure that losses are sufficiently asymmetrically distributed that it ‘wins’ this game?” The economists go on to say: “This is a very dangerous game, both for the UK and for EU. It is wiser to take the threat of a hard Brexit at face value and react accordingly.”

“Recognising that a hard Brexit is in no one’s interest and that it would cause irreparable political as well as economic damage, we call both on the UK government and the EU Commission to rethink their ‘red lines’ and return to the negotiation table.”

This is the story that should be running big in every media outlet in the country and be first on the agenda in the House of Commons next week. Want to take a bet it won’t?