Britain, Ukraine, an EU adrift and the testing of the West by Putin

This is my weekly newsletter for members of Reaction. Don’t miss our Weekend section, where the great Adam Boulton has written on the possibilities of hydrogen. Adam announced this week he’s leaving Sky News, and in his statement he kindly mentioned his writing for Reaction. We love Adam being part of the team here. There’s also opera, Allan Massie expertly analysing a big rugby weekend, Jenny Hjul on Meghan Markle, food, art, our What to Watch guide, books and more.

Unless there’s a sudden de-escalation, British politics is about to be made to look very small by developments in Eastern Europe. What is unfolding there is a crisis that has the potential – the potential – to upend European affairs.

There’s a Putin-shaped pattern. In Poland, the government is trying to hold back (with NATO help, including the Brits) a Kremlin-backed Belarus regime seeking to pour migrants over the border.

In Bosnia, the Russians are assisting ultra-nationalists set to break the 1990s peace accords.

The US has warned that Russia may be preparing an invasion of Ukraine, to take more territory from the beleaguered country that used to be part of the Soviet Union. This isn’t the first time there have been warnings about an imminent incursion by President Putin. Several times in the last few years there have been dangerous moments when it looked as though there might be action.

What’s different this time is that the timing could not be more perfect for the Russian leader if he decides to act. Going into winter, Western Europe needs Russian gas supplies. German politics is especially inward-looking right now, with the parties stuck in talks seeking to form a new post-Merkel coalition. Although Germany is a powerhouse, its leadership class is risk averse and paranoid about military engagement. Angela Merkel had a conversation this week with Putin in which she told him to behave. What’s she going to do? Presumably, the Russian managed to keep a straight face during the call.

France is, with its partner Britain, one of two non-Russian European defence powers. President Macron’s view is that there’s a grand rapprochement to be had with Russia. Perhaps there is at some point, post-Putin. Right now, Putin is menacing Europe. Being nice about it isn’t much of an answer.

Anticipating the Ukraine crisis, the British government has calmly been preparing a bolstering of the defence pact between the UK and Ukraine in the hope that it will help. There isn’t a security guarantee covering Ukraine. But the Brits have taken the view that it falls to the UK because so much is at stake. There’s a more robust view since Putin’s agents poisoned people in Salisbury.

It’s fashionable in Britain and countries that spend almost nothing on defence or Intel to say Britain is irredeemably rubbish, a joke country. Yet, somehow, we’re always as the sharp end on intelligence, security and defence, not a superpower but trying to think about his stuff and be engaged.

To say the EU – which encouraged Ukraine to move towards EU membership, and now does little for Ukraine – has been useless on all this is an understatement. The Ukrainians feel abandoned. In Washington, the administration is desperately worried but its senior people still can’t quite grasp, say Whitehall sources, the European dimension. It seems to think it can take the UK for granted.

Reaction revealed on Friday that an arms deal involving British firms is about to be announced, potentially in the next few days. Ministers are expected in Ukraine as early as the coming week to unveil that strengthened pact.

We discussed all this on Press Review, the Reaction show on YouTube this week, in a special edition with Tim Marshall, geopolitics expert, author and Reaction columnist. Tim’s view is that the West, although he prefers another term, is in the process of being tested. The West is outdated, we should think of it in terms of the advanced democracies, including India and Japan, he says. This is a concept like the D10, describing ten leading democracies including the five eyes intelligence network led by the US and Britain, plus other powers worried about China and Russia.

Now’s the test. Britain is about to show it supports Ukraine, a risky but necessary move. The US is in despair about the EU. And Putin, with plentiful supplies of gas, sees it all. Hold on tight. 

Does Boris Johnson have the support for a trade war with the EU?

It is being reported that the government is on the point of triggering Article 16. If it does, this will start a trade war with the European Union involving tariffs and all manner of restrictions. The problem is the Northern Ireland protocol. That part of the “oven-ready” deal the government signed to get Brexit done has created trading problems for Northern Ireland. The EU has offered concessions to reduce checks, but the Prime Minister’s (re)negotiator Lord Frost says they don’t go far enough. The British government want any oversight of the EU’s European Court of Justice removed.

So, there’s a breakdown coming?

Readers of the substack newsletter from Dominic Cummings, former Boris guru and now merciless enemy of the Prime Minister, will know that Dom is opposed to triggering Article 16 on the basis that he says the man he helped put in Number 10 doesn’t know what he’s doing.

Are Lord Frost and Johnson about to go for it on Article 16? Although we’ve all learnt anything is possible in the Johnson era, I doubt very much they’ll do it.

Why not?

The parliamentary dynamics have changed. The  Number 10 that cockily tried to save the former cabinet minister Owen Paterson learnt a lesson: Boris can’t do whatever he wants, even with an 80 seat majority.

The government might get away with the initial splurge of spin for 48 hours or so after triggering Article 16, introducing a Statutory Instrument that kills off the existing Brexit deal. After that? What next? How long is this trade war going to be? Months or years? What will the Lords do? What will middle-ground Tory MPs do and think after the initial drama has faded and it’s a mess on trade?

The Treasury – politically weak, but not that weak – is opposed to a trade war too.

In the last 72 hours, the British government has softened its position, with Lord Frost taking a more conciliatory position towards the EU. Both sides are talking up the need for a deal.

That is a reflection of brute political reality, given the mess in parliament. The Prime Minister might, in a fit of pique, want to trigger Article 16. But I doubt he can manage it now.

What I’m reading

The menu for Skylon, a nice restaurant on the South Bank in London, where we’re very kindly being taken for dinner this weekend by a friend and media star who is a member of Reaction. Other than that I’ve gone back to read more of Marc Morris’s recent work – The Anglo-Saxons: A History of the Beginnings of England. It’s a period of history I struggle with, despite being compelled to study a chunk of it at university. Enthusiastic academics taught us with great skill and enthusiasm, explaining why so much of it was unknowable, unrecorded, entirely speculative. We shouldn’t think of it as the lost bit between the end of Roman Britain and the arrival of the nasty Normans, they said. Look at the sophistication of their jewellery and that long, mystical poem. Here’s a map of England being formed. It was no good, it induced in me a brain fog no matter how hard I tried. I wanted to get out and onto the British civil war(s) of the mid-17th century, or Teddy Roosevelt and the American Progressives, or Edmund Burke, or modern war and diplomacy. Marc Morris’s book on the Anglo-Saxons is different and it has grabbed me. The writing is so clear; it’s a triumph.

Watch Reaction

Every week I’m aiming to interview a leading author for our Youtube channel, and we’ll put it out on Sundays. Tomorrow, my conversation with American author Batya Ungar-Sargon goes live. We discussed her book – Bad News: How Woke Media Is Undermining Democracy.

We discuss class, news, technology, the history of journalism, newsrooms and how they’ve changed since we started in media, and the ongoing culture wars. I really enjoyed the book and our talk. We’ll send you a link.

Have a good weekend.