Discover more from REACTION
Britain’s biggest population challenge isn’t high immigration
The UK is an ageing population, plagued with ever greater levels of economic inactivity.
The ONS has done little to calm existing panic over Britain’s unsustainable levels of population growth, after it projected today that the UK population will soar by almost five million over the next decade.
Britain’s population will rise to an estimated 72.5 million by 2032, up from 67.6 million in 2022, and not because of a baby boom. On the contrary, the number of births and deaths across this period are projected to almost exactly offset one another. Meaning the absolute driver of this population growth is migration.
If these projections become reality, we can expect one million people to migrate to the UK every year this decade. And Britain’s net migration - the difference between those coming and leaving the country - will total 4.9 million over the ten years to 2032. The vast majority of those coming to Britain will be individuals granted visas by the Home Office since small boat crossings make up a fraction of overall migration figures.
In the year ending June 2023, net migration to the UK reached a record high of 906,000. That is likely to remain as the peak, with net migration projected to average 340,000 per year from mid-2028 onwards.
Even so, against the backdrop of a housing crisis, sky-high NHS waiting lists, widespread council bankruptcies and Britain’s dismal growth prospects, news of more migration-driven population growth has prompted concern today.
Yet, when it comes to all of the UK’s aforementioned economic woes, high immigration levels are in many respects a distraction from some far more troubling demographic trends: an ageing population, plagued with ever greater levels of economic inactivity.
According to the ONS, the number of people in the UK at state pension age is likely to increase by nearly 2 million by 2032 - a 14 per cent rise from mid-2022. And the number of people aged over 85 is projected to almost double to 3.3 million by 2047.
Meanwhile, the number of babies being born in England has reached its lowest levels since the 1970s. At 1.44, Britain now has one of the lowest fertility rates in western Europe and, by 2050, that figure is forecast to fall further still to 1.38.
The reality is that the same set of ONS projects that show migration is the cause of what many deem an unwanted population rise also remind us why Britain needs immigration: youthful workers from abroad will help to offset the enormous strain that an ageing population places on the country’s NHS, social care and pensions system.
The UK is not alone here. A landmark 2024 Lancet study warned that plummeting birthrates across the majority of the world will completely refigure the global economy and leave high income countries, including the UK, heavily reliant on immigration in the decades to come, leading to “fierce competition for migrants to sustain economic growth”.
Countries with ageing populations who’ve been reluctant to look beyond their borders for solutions are already finding themselves in unenviable positions - low-immigration countries Japan and China are cases in point. China’s retirement-age population, aged 60 and over, is expected to increase by 60 per cent to 400 million over the next decade. That’s more than the entire population of America. The state-run Chinese Academy of Sciences warns that the pension system could run out of money by 2035.
In Britain, while an ageing population is placing a strain on the economy, another demographic pattern is adding fuel to the fire: an ever greater chunk of the youthful population who are off work, long-term.
The UK’s official unemployment figure - at 1.4 million (4 per cent) - is somewhat misleading in that it only accounts for those who are actively looking for work.
The number of individuals in Britain on out-of-work sickness benefits - who are not actively seeking employment - currently stands at 3.2 million. That’s a rise of one million in just five years, with an associated welfare cost of another £10 billion a year.
According to research conducted by Fraser Nelson for Channel 4 Dispatches, there are huge regional variations too. In some parts of Glasgow and Grimsby, almost a third of the working-age population are on sickness benefits.
And for those struggling with long-term illness, incentives to return to work are often lacking too: combine sickness benefit with disability benefit (or 'PIP') and it adds up to more than the minimum wage.
The biggest strain to Britain’s economy is not a ballooning population in and of itself but rather the make-up of that population: an ageing one in which so many youthful workers are falling by the wayside.
Caitlin Allen
Deputy Editor
ON REACTION
Adam Boulton
Israel, Palestine and the impossible challenge of peaceful co-existence
Gerald Warner
Assisted suicide opens the way to restoration of capital punishment
ALSO KNOW
OpenAI boss and Trump react to emergence of DeepSeek – OpenAI’s chief executive, Sam Altman, has responded to the emergence of the cut-price Chinese rival to ChatGPT, stating that it was “invigorating to have a new competitor.” President Trump has insisted that it “should be a wake-up call” for US industries and that they should be “laser-focused on competing to win.”
Prostate cancer cases soar - Prostate cancer is now the most common form of cancer in England, according to NHS data. There were 55,000 cases in 2023, up 25% on five years before.
UK government announces Gaza aid - The Minister for Development, Anneliese Dodds, has announced a £17 million package to “support thousands of civilians across the Occupied Palestinian Territories,” along with support from UN agencies such as the UNRWA.
Wimbledon school crash driver arrested again - The driver of a SUV that crashed into a school in Wimbledon, killing two young girls, has been arrested again, following the reopening of the investigation last October.
FIVE THINGS
1. DeepSeek: China’s game changing AI system has big implications for UK tech development. Feng Li in The Conversation.
2. The strategy behind Trump’s policy blitz. Jonathan Lemire in The Atlantic.
3. Will Iran and Russia’s growing partnership go nuclear? Nicole Grajewski and Or Rabinowitz in Foreign Affairs.
4. The one lesson Kemi Badenoch should take from Keir Starmer. Oliver Middleton in CapX.