Can Macron and VDL woo Xi in Beijing?

French President, Emmanuel Macron, and EU president, Ursula von der Leyen, arrived in Beijing today to kickstart their ambitious diplomatic trip to dissuade China from switching to “war camp” on Ukraine.

The three-day visit will include over six hours of time with Chinese president, Xi Jinping, between meetings and banquets.

Speaking outside Beijing’s French embassy ahead of the talks, Macron expressed a willingness to reconnect with his Chinese counterpart. He dismissed the idea that there is “an inescapable spiral of mounting tensions” between the West and China, insisting: “I do not believe in this scenario.”

Exactly how tense the discussions turn out to be will depend a lot on what Xi has to say about the war in Ukraine. While Beijing is officially neutral, it has never condemned Putin’s invasion and has helped Moscow to bypass Western sanctions. Just a fortnight ago, Xi visited Vladimir Putin in Moscow where the two leaders renewed their anti-Western alliance. 

While Western powers have criticised China’s 12-point peace plan for Ukraine as skewed towards Moscow’s interests, Macron is keen to see Xi play peacemaker – and use his influence over Putin to end the conflict. Indeed, the Elysée has said that China holds unique leverage to “tilt” the situation for better or for worse.

Although a major diplomatic breakthrough is unlikely, Macron is likely to ask for guarantees, for instance, that Beijing will not arm Moscow. 

Macron’s insistence that Europe mustn’t erode ties with Beijing isn’t just about protecting Kyiv’s interests, it’s also about preserving trade relations. 

The French president has brought along a delegation of 60 business leaders, including the bosses of EDF and Airbus, who hope to sign lucrative contracts. Landing some economic wins during the trip may feel especially important in light of the pension protests-fuelled chaos back home. 

But when it comes to trade talks, tensions could emerge between Macron and VDL. 

Only last week, VDL, who is more hawkish on Beijing, gave a speech stressing the risk of close trade with China and echoing Biden in urging EU countries to “de-risk” from overdependency on the superpower. 

Macron invited VDL along on the trip, most likely to project a united EU front on Russia. But the undeniable difference in viewpoints might create a Macron-good cop, VDL-bad cop dynamic during talks.  

Will the discussions prove fruitful?

French officials hope that offering Xi “another path” from Washington’s confrontational approach will generate results. Yet sceptics may wish to remind us of Macron’s failed attempts to insert himself as a pre-invasion peacemaker with Putin. 

Then again, Beijing is increasingly eager to present itself as a global peacemaker which can broker deals where the US has failed. 

As Mattie Brignal recently wrote for Reaction, it was China that brokered the recent deal which led to the surprise restoration of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Beijing appears keen to build on these credentials by presenting itself as the only power capable of resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

A peacemaker position carries more clout for China than fully throwing its weight behind a side whose war efforts are faltering. 

For this reason, Xi may well be receptive to Macron’s plea not to switch to “war camp”. 

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