Can Wales beat England and win the Triple Crown?

For Wales, their Six Nations match against England has almost always been the big one, the match of the year. True, they always have championship aspirations and are quite accustomed to collect Triple Crowns and even Grand Slams. Nevertheless, whatever else happens, a season in which England are beaten can never be written off as a failure, certainly not a complete one.

England may think differently about the Welsh match, but they often get lured into giving it a special significance too. They can be caught up in the emotion, especially when the match is in Cardiff and played before a sea of red dotted with daffodils and the crowd breaks into whole-hearted singing. Today, of course, there will be no crowd and piped music is a poor substitute for a live choir. England will surely not be unhappy if some of the emotion is taken out of the occasion. On the other hand, if they get ahead, they will be deprived of the boost that a home crowd falling miserably silent can give the visiting team.

Both sides come to this pivotal week of the Six Nations still in a state of some uncertainty. Wales, after an unhappy autumn, find themselves with a chance of the Triple Crown. They have played with great resolution and a fair degree of skill against both Ireland and Scotland yet are accounted more than a little fortunate to have won both matches, and fortunate not only in playing for long periods of both against only fourteen men. Scotland, having dominated Wales for almost all of the first half to lead 17-3, shot themselves in the foot by giving away a succession of careless penalties which eventually led to a Welsh try and a half-time score of 17-8. The previous week Ireland might have snatched victory at the death if fly-half Billy Burns hadn’t sent a penalty into touch-in goal instead of a few metres from the try-line.

Meanwhile England, after a lacklustre show in losing to Scotland, were somewhat better in exposing Italy’s defensive weakness and winning by a comfortable margin. Yet few of their supporters and few commentators were impressed by their performance. Posters on social media have been calling for captain Owen Farrell to be dropped. It’s not so long since he was the darling of English rugby, but the public is a fickle beast. To my mind Farrell remains a very fine player who was never quite as good as his fondest admirers claimed but is very much better than his detractors now say.

In any case, though Eddie Jones loves to throw out provocative ideas, he is a very conservative selector, and this England team is very much the usual mixture. Recent form, or lack of form, doesn’t seem to have disturbed Mr Jones. The mighty number 8 Billy Vunipola has looked much less than the player we have been accustomed to view with a mixture of admiration and apprehension. Indeed, by his own account, he has been playing “rubbish”. But he is still there. Perhaps he will be inspired by the improved form this spring of the Welsh number 8, Taulupe Faletau, who happens to be his cousin.

Wayne Pivac, the Welsh coach, has been equally conservative, putting his trust in a 13,12,10 midfield of George North, Jonathan Davies and Dan Biggar, all of whom have been about for ages. North indeed will be winning his hundredth cap., and, though Wales perked up at Murrayfield when Callum Sheedy came on to replace Biggar, Biggar’s vast experience gets him the nod again. Meanwhile Nick Tompkins, who has offered attacking threat in the centre, doesn’t even find a place on the bench. These are two starting XVs who know each other very well, more than half of them indeed having been team-mates on Lions tours. Let us hope both teams show an eagerness to attack and run the ball, and don’t subject us to repeated exchanges of kicks down the middle of the field. Both after all have wingers who will score tries if given good ball and even a little space.

One reason why this match almost always matters more to the Welsh than any other is that rugby is the only major sport where Wales is completely independent of England and competes on equal terms, winning as often as not. Wales has of course its national football team, but the fully professional Welsh clubs play in the English leagues, just as Glamorgan play in the English County Championship. It is also a quasi-fraternal rivalry. There are players in the Welsh team who might have chosen to represent England, just as the Vunipola brothers might have opted to be Welsh, not English.

Indeed, one of England’s staunchest supporters will be rooting for Wales today. Ian Botham may be a sporting candidate for the honorary title of “Greatest Living Englishman”, but his grandson James, known as Jimbo, is on the Welsh bench and will surely come on for the last half-hour at least. Though he has neither Welsh Parents nor Grandparents and was educated in England at that great rugby school, Sedbergh, he was born in Wales when his father Liam was playing rugby for Cardiff Blues. Hew displayed, one is told, the Red Dragon flag of Wales in his childhood bedroom, and has played in Welsh age-groups teams, making long journeys to take part in squad training sessions. He too now plays for Cardiff Blues and, as far as rugby is concerned, is a thoroughly committed Welshman. My elder son has long maintained that, if it were practical and if you could rely on getting an honest answer, the best test of eligibility to play rugby for a country would be to pose the question: “who did you support when you were ten?” Clearly, it’s a test that the young Botham would pass with full marks, and I hope he has a cracking game when he comes on. Good enough to bring a proud tear to his Grandpa’s eye.