Chances minimal that Lynch and other missing yacht victims have survived

Divers are combing underwater wreckage today for Mike Lynch, a man hailed by some as Britain’s Bill Gates, and accused by others of being one of the country’s greatest fraudsters.

Since Monday, the wealthy tech entrepreneur and five others have been missing in the Mediterranean, feared to be entombed in the hull of a £14mn superyacht as it settles on the seafloor off Palermo’s coast. 

A surprise storm has been blamed for the ship’s untimely demise as it anchored half a mile offshore. Witnesses attest that a gailing waterspout split the massive yacht’s mast around 4:30 am, plunging it to its side where waves overwhelmed the compromised vessel. The early-morning disaster is said to have unfolded in just two minutes, giving those below deck little chance to escape.

Fifteen people were rescued immediately from the wreck as nearby boats rushed to their aid. In an especially nightmarish ordeal, one survivor recounts having lost hold of her one-year-old infant in the dark, churning waves, but was miraculously able to retrieve her seconds after. The family has been released from care today following the traumatising experience. 

So far, the body of one man, identified as the ship’s cook, has been recovered. Among those still missing are four British nationals: Mike Lynch, his teen daughter Hannah, Jonathon Bloomer, and his spouse Judy. A spokesperson for Morgan Stanley has said the firm is “deeply shocked and saddened” by the disappearances of the Bloomer couple. Jonathon has chaired the investment banking giant’s European arm since 2018, and his wife Judy headed a women’s cancer charity known as the Eve Appeal. 

If any of the missing are still inside the downed vessel, there is a (very) small chance they may be alive. In 2013, a Nigerian man was miraculously saved by British divers after waiting two days in an air pocket aboard his doomed tanker. “Miraculously” being the operative word in this instance. 

According to one of the survivors, many of the guests onboard were there to celebrate Lynch’s acquittal from his £8.64bn criminal case in early June this year. The case revolved around fraud allegations from Hewlett-Packard, who purchased Lynch’s software company Autonomy in 2011. HP claimed Lynch and his associates grossly misrepresented Autonomy’s financial figures, fleecing them out of several billion pounds. The firm has fought for years in courts on both sides of the Atlantic for years to get restitution.

Lynch’s acquittal came as a surprise to some, as Autonomy’s former finance director was found guilty and sentenced to a five-year prison term for defrauding HP in the deal. In addition, just prior to his US extradition, Lynch himself was found liable in a UK civil case for defrauding HP. The case was in the midst of the appeals process when the yacht sank on Monday. 

Supporters say Lynch was the victim of a stitch up by an American corporate giant that perhaps overpaid and a US justice system keen to show who is boss.

In an extraordinarily strange coincidence, Lynch’s co-defendant in the US criminal case, former Autonomy VP Stephen Chamberlain, was killed just days ago after being struck by a car in Cambridgeshire. Foul-play appears unlikely however, as the 49-year-old driver reportedly stayed on the scene and cooperated with police.

The sinking of a yacht filled with prominent tech and banking magnates, along with the strange death of a co-defendant in a multi-billion pound fraud case, has, unsurprisingly, provoked a frenzy of online speculation and conspiracy theories. 

The reality appears to be much less sensational. As the inferential theorem of the yacht’s “Baynesian” namesake suggests, the more information released, the more concise the probability becomes. Increasingly, it looks like freak weather and an unfortunate driving mishap are the only culprits to blame in the accidents. 

The underwater search is now entering a critical 24 hours as rescue divers struggle against difficult conditions to enter the ship’s hull. For the sake of those involved, let’s hope another miracle awaits.

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