Fuss around COP28’s President distracts from conference progress

Well, this wasn’t very hard to predict, was it? This year’s COP has focused, to no one’s surprise on the host and on the COP President himself, Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, the CEO of ADNOC, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. It looked like a provocative appointment at the time and so it has proved but it’s probably provoked in a way that the Emiratis, with their limited experience of a free press, had failed to prepare for. 

Global media, with all their resources, cunning and experience, have gone after Al Jaber and have drawn blood. And they were always going to – the contradiction of his dual role was always too great to allow him to pass through COP28 unscathed. He has also been a victim of what The Sunday Times identified as a new trend at COP – that it’s become the new Davos: a place to make friends, have a good time, enjoy some winter sun and do deals. As a result, we have seen two main criticisms of the COP President – that he has used COP to promote ADNOC and that he doesn’t really believe in the science of climate change.

This has lead to today’s coverage that has seen a thin-skinned Al Jaber angrily refute both allegations and especially the latter. There’s little doubt that some of the criticism of Al Jaber has some fairly ugly prejudice behind it but it’s the sort of prejudice that the Guardian and others excel at. Being a rich and successful Emirati means that generalisations can be made about you and how you must think without fear of anyone suggesting that you might be, I don’t know, a touch racist? Either way, the response this week by Al Jaber has shown that the criticism of him has stung and has forced him into making statements he may not have thought he would have to make. 

He was quoted by the BBC as saying “I have said over and over that the phase down and the phase out of fossil fuel is inevitable… I will say it very precisely. Looking at scenarios in which global warming is limited to 1.5 degrees with no or little overshoot, by 2050, fossil fuel use is greatly reduced, and unabated coal use is completely phased out.” This perspective from Al Jaber is uncompromising and, as, cough, your faithful correspondent predicted, will likely lead to a more radical conclusion to COP than most would have thought possible. 

By using expressions like “phased out”, Al Jaber is placing himself squarely in the EU camp of climate action versus the more “take it slow” Saudi camp and this will matter when it comes to the final negotiations. Brace yourselves, then, for a COP that matters because, no matter what anyone tells you, what is agreed at one COP does flow through to the next. Last year’s loss and damage fund looked like a damp squib but it’s all change this year. Having conceded the principle at COP27, developed economies have now pledged half a trillion dollars to the fund at this COP and it’s only going up. 

So, watch this space – it’s going to get testy and tasty in Dubai over the next ten days and I’m betting on team Al Jaber. They have no choice now: COP28 has to be a success and that means a narrower future for fossil fuels than ever before. 

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